{"checked_at":"2026-10-25T17:45:15.757869+00:00","sources":[{"venue":"Polymarket","ok":true,"observed_at":"2026-10-25T17:45:13.498152+00:00"},{"venue":"Kalshi","ok":true,"observed_at":"2026-10-25T17:45:13.441307+00:00"}],"markets":[{"id":"polymarket:4178411","venue":"Polymarket","lab":"anthropic","event_id":"956789","group":"Next Fable Model (5.2+)","question":"Next Fable Model (5.2+) released by October 31, 2026?","deadline_at":"2026-11-01T04:00:00+00:00","deadline_label":"By Oct 31, 2026 (ET)","bid":0.307,"ask":0.323,"midpoint":0.315,"spread":0.016,"url":"https://polymarket.com/event/next-fable-model-5pt2-released-byptptpt/next-fable-model-5pt2-released-by-october-31-2026","active":true,"volume":347212.950754,"volume_unit":"USD","volume_24h":7754.974918,"result":null,"closed_at":null,"opened_at":"2026-09-03T00:10:55.946097Z","rules":"This market will resolve to \"Yes\" if Anthropic's next Fable model (5.2+) is made available to the general public between market creation and the specified date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to \"No\".\n\nA qualifying model must have a name or model identifier that includes \"Fable\" and be designated as version 5.2 or higher, regardless of capitalization or surrounding prefixes, suffixes, dates, or descriptors. For example, a version 5.2 or higher named in the same manner as Claude Fable 5 or Claude Fable 5.1 would qualify, including a new whole-number generation such as Claude Fable 6, while models whose name does not include \"Fable\" or which retain a version designation below 5.2, such as Claude Fable 5.1 or Claude Mythos 5.1, will not qualify.\n\nA qualifying model must be launched and publicly accessible, including via open beta or open rolling waitlist signups. A closed beta or any form of private access will not suffice. The release must either be clearly defined and publicly announced by Anthropic as accessible to the general public, or otherwise be made publicly accessible and explicitly labeled on the company's official website. Labeling errors, placeholder text, or version names displayed on the website that do not correspond to a model that is actually accessible to the general public will not qualify.\n\nThe primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Anthropic, with additional verification from a consensus of credible reporting.","rules_hash":"af5c2a00fde2b4074783eaefc6a5d0138b132f4fab771f2bfad1143753a27cf1","observed_at":"2026-10-25T17:45:13.498152+00:00"},{"id":"polymarket:4178412","venue":"Polymarket","lab":"anthropic","event_id":"956789","group":"Next Fable Model (5.2+)","question":"Next Fable Model (5.2+) released by December 31, 2026?","deadline_at":"2027-01-01T05:00:00+00:00","deadline_label":"By Dec 31, 2026 (ET)","bid":0.923,"ask":0.945,"midpoint":0.934,"spread":0.022,"url":"https://polymarket.com/event/next-fable-model-5pt2-released-byptptpt/next-fable-model-5pt2-released-by-december-31-2026","active":true,"volume":35522.260923999995,"volume_unit":"USD","volume_24h":200.0,"result":null,"closed_at":null,"opened_at":"2026-09-03T00:10:56.488077Z","rules":"This market will resolve to \"Yes\" if Anthropic's next Fable model (5.2+) is made available to the general public between market creation and the specified date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to \"No\".\n\nA qualifying model must have a name or model identifier that includes \"Fable\" and be designated as version 5.2 or higher, regardless of capitalization or surrounding prefixes, suffixes, dates, or descriptors. For example, a version 5.2 or higher named in the same manner as Claude Fable 5 or Claude Fable 5.1 would qualify, including a new whole-number generation such as Claude Fable 6, while models whose name does not include \"Fable\" or which retain a version designation below 5.2, such as Claude Fable 5.1 or Claude Mythos 5.1, will not qualify.\n\nA qualifying model must be launched and publicly accessible, including via open beta or open rolling waitlist signups. A closed beta or any form of private access will not suffice. The release must either be clearly defined and publicly announced by Anthropic as accessible to the general public, or otherwise be made publicly accessible and explicitly labeled on the company's official website. Labeling errors, placeholder text, or version names displayed on the website that do not correspond to a model that is actually accessible to the general public will not qualify.\n\nThe primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Anthropic, with additional verification from a consensus of credible reporting.","rules_hash":"d2a6159f3d047cb8c6162e129c90b8772bb8e20620bfd6ab7a6bc39f2780ac05","observed_at":"2026-10-25T17:45:13.498152+00:00"},{"id":"polymarket:5998475","venue":"Polymarket","lab":"anthropic","event_id":"956789","group":"Next Fable Model (5.2+)","question":"Next Fable Model (5.2+) released by October 26, 2026?","deadline_at":"2026-10-27T04:00:00+00:00","deadline_label":"By Oct 26, 2026 (ET)","bid":0.028,"ask":0.033,"midpoint":0.0305,"spread":0.005,"url":"https://polymarket.com/event/next-fable-model-5pt2-released-byptptpt/next-fable-model-5pt2-released-by-october-26-2026","active":true,"volume":14010.969674,"volume_unit":"USD","volume_24h":2531.9202999999998,"result":null,"closed_at":null,"opened_at":"2026-10-20T23:33:18.096179Z","rules":"This market will resolve to \"Yes\" if Anthropic's next Fable model (5.2+) is made available to the general public between market creation and the specified date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to \"No\".\n\nA qualifying model must have a name or model identifier that includes \"Fable\" and be designated as version 5.2 or higher, regardless of capitalization or surrounding prefixes, suffixes, dates, or descriptors. For example, a version 5.2 or higher named in the same manner as Claude Fable 5 or Claude Fable 5.1 would qualify, including a new whole-number generation such as Claude Fable 6, while models whose name does not include \"Fable\" or which retain a version designation below 5.2, such as Claude Fable 5.1 or Claude Mythos 5.1, will not qualify.\n\nA qualifying model must be launched and publicly accessible, including via open beta or open rolling waitlist signups. A closed beta or any form of private access will not suffice. The release must either be clearly defined and publicly announced by Anthropic as accessible to the general public, or otherwise be made publicly accessible and explicitly labeled on the company's official website. Labeling errors, placeholder text, or version names displayed on the website that do not correspond to a model that is actually accessible to the general public will not qualify.\n\nThe primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Anthropic, with additional verification from a consensus of credible reporting.","rules_hash":"15a99de16528e14a129117c684a62174a46508756a164dc82699149539134aaf","observed_at":"2026-10-25T17:45:13.498152+00:00"},{"id":"polymarket:5998474","venue":"Polymarket","lab":"anthropic","event_id":"956789","group":"Next Fable Model (5.2+)","question":"Next Fable Model (5.2+) released by October 27, 2026?","deadline_at":"2026-10-28T04:00:00+00:00","deadline_label":"By Oct 27, 2026 (ET)","bid":0.19,"ask":0.21,"midpoint":0.2,"spread":0.02,"url":"https://polymarket.com/event/next-fable-model-5pt2-released-byptptpt/next-fable-model-5pt2-released-by-october-27-2026","active":true,"volume":15859.099885,"volume_unit":"USD","volume_24h":5143.219233,"result":null,"closed_at":null,"opened_at":"2026-10-20T23:33:18.08649Z","rules":"This market will resolve to \"Yes\" if Anthropic's next Fable model (5.2+) is made available to the general public between market creation and the specified date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to \"No\".\n\nA qualifying model must have a name or model identifier that includes \"Fable\" and be designated as version 5.2 or higher, regardless of capitalization or surrounding prefixes, suffixes, dates, or descriptors. For example, a version 5.2 or higher named in the same manner as Claude Fable 5 or Claude Fable 5.1 would qualify, including a new whole-number generation such as Claude Fable 6, while models whose name does not include \"Fable\" or which retain a version designation below 5.2, such as Claude Fable 5.1 or Claude Mythos 5.1, will not qualify.\n\nA qualifying model must be launched and publicly accessible, including via open beta or open rolling waitlist signups. A closed beta or any form of private access will not suffice. The release must either be clearly defined and publicly announced by Anthropic as accessible to the general public, or otherwise be made publicly accessible and explicitly labeled on the company's official website. Labeling errors, placeholder text, or version names displayed on the website that do not correspond to a model that is actually accessible to the general public will not qualify.\n\nThe primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Anthropic, with additional verification from a consensus of credible reporting.","rules_hash":"1d7456372b46fbd2c0676e012182fa7931242f58646d587cb8485bc1fe2b4f7d","observed_at":"2026-10-25T17:45:13.498152+00:00"},{"id":"polymarket:5998478","venue":"Polymarket","lab":"anthropic","event_id":"956789","group":"Next Fable Model (5.2+)","question":"Next Fable Model (5.2+) released by October 29, 2026?","deadline_at":"2026-10-30T04:00:00+00:00","deadline_label":"By Oct 29, 2026 (ET)","bid":0.26,"ask":0.29,"midpoint":0.275,"spread":0.03,"url":"https://polymarket.com/event/next-fable-model-5pt2-released-byptptpt/next-fable-model-5pt2-released-by-october-29-2026","active":true,"volume":41520.30498599999,"volume_unit":"USD","volume_24h":3509.879112,"result":null,"closed_at":null,"opened_at":"2026-10-20T23:33:18.387963Z","rules":"This market will resolve to \"Yes\" if Anthropic's next Fable model (5.2+) is made available to the general public between market creation and the specified date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to \"No\".\n\nA qualifying model must have a name or model identifier that includes \"Fable\" and be designated as version 5.2 or higher, regardless of capitalization or surrounding prefixes, suffixes, dates, or descriptors. For example, a version 5.2 or higher named in the same manner as Claude Fable 5 or Claude Fable 5.1 would qualify, including a new whole-number generation such as Claude Fable 6, while models whose name does not include \"Fable\" or which retain a version designation below 5.2, such as Claude Fable 5.1 or Claude Mythos 5.1, will not qualify.\n\nA qualifying model must be launched and publicly accessible, including via open beta or open rolling waitlist signups. A closed beta or any form of private access will not suffice. The release must either be clearly defined and publicly announced by Anthropic as accessible to the general public, or otherwise be made publicly accessible and explicitly labeled on the company's official website. Labeling errors, placeholder text, or version names displayed on the website that do not correspond to a model that is actually accessible to the general public will not qualify.\n\nThe primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Anthropic, with additional verification from a consensus of credible reporting.","rules_hash":"474788f9b5397da68d1b45c1fd509d891e0e1c2095707599ef408d369be4f72f","observed_at":"2026-10-25T17:45:13.498152+00:00"},{"id":"polymarket:5998476","venue":"Polymarket","lab":"anthropic","event_id":"956789","group":"Next Fable Model (5.2+)","question":"Next Fable Model (5.2+) released by October 30, 2026?","deadline_at":"2026-10-31T04:00:00+00:00","deadline_label":"By Oct 30, 2026 (ET)","bid":0.29,"ask":0.31,"midpoint":0.3,"spread":0.02,"url":"https://polymarket.com/event/next-fable-model-5pt2-released-byptptpt/next-fable-model-5pt2-released-by-october-30-2026","active":true,"volume":15133.375825,"volume_unit":"USD","volume_24h":3230.342523,"result":null,"closed_at":null,"opened_at":"2026-10-20T23:33:18.195505Z","rules":"This market will resolve to \"Yes\" if Anthropic's next Fable model (5.2+) is made available to the general public between market creation and the specified date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to \"No\".\n\nA qualifying model must have a name or model identifier that includes \"Fable\" and be designated as version 5.2 or higher, regardless of capitalization or surrounding prefixes, suffixes, dates, or descriptors. For example, a version 5.2 or higher named in the same manner as Claude Fable 5 or Claude Fable 5.1 would qualify, including a new whole-number generation such as Claude Fable 6, while models whose name does not include \"Fable\" or which retain a version designation below 5.2, such as Claude Fable 5.1 or Claude Mythos 5.1, will not qualify.\n\nA qualifying model must be launched and publicly accessible, including via open beta or open rolling waitlist signups. A closed beta or any form of private access will not suffice. The release must either be clearly defined and publicly announced by Anthropic as accessible to the general public, or otherwise be made publicly accessible and explicitly labeled on the company's official website. Labeling errors, placeholder text, or version names displayed on the website that do not correspond to a model that is actually accessible to the general public will not qualify.\n\nThe primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Anthropic, with additional verification from a consensus of credible reporting.","rules_hash":"35e7fc22ba781d4f39bcd767560261e3e80ba36ba03511f9c76656b94d5c528c","observed_at":"2026-10-25T17:45:13.498152+00:00"},{"id":"polymarket:5998477","venue":"Polymarket","lab":"anthropic","event_id":"956789","group":"Next Fable Model (5.2+)","question":"Next Fable Model (5.2+) released by October 28, 2026?","deadline_at":"2026-10-29T04:00:00+00:00","deadline_label":"By Oct 28, 2026 (ET)","bid":0.22,"ask":0.25,"midpoint":0.235,"spread":0.03,"url":"https://polymarket.com/event/next-fable-model-5pt2-released-byptptpt/next-fable-model-5pt2-released-by-october-28-2026","active":true,"volume":9341.74016,"volume_unit":"USD","volume_24h":1060.2313800000002,"result":null,"closed_at":null,"opened_at":"2026-10-20T23:33:18.312432Z","rules":"This market will resolve to \"Yes\" if Anthropic's next Fable model (5.2+) is made available to the general public between market creation and the specified date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to \"No\".\n\nA qualifying model must have a name or model identifier that includes \"Fable\" and be designated as version 5.2 or higher, regardless of capitalization or surrounding prefixes, suffixes, dates, or descriptors. For example, a version 5.2 or higher named in the same manner as Claude Fable 5 or Claude Fable 5.1 would qualify, including a new whole-number generation such as Claude Fable 6, while models whose name does not include \"Fable\" or which retain a version designation below 5.2, such as Claude Fable 5.1 or Claude Mythos 5.1, will not qualify.\n\nA qualifying model must be launched and publicly accessible, including via open beta or open rolling waitlist signups. A closed beta or any form of private access will not suffice. The release must either be clearly defined and publicly announced by Anthropic as accessible to the general public, or otherwise be made publicly accessible and explicitly labeled on the company's official website. Labeling errors, placeholder text, or version names displayed on the website that do not correspond to a model that is actually accessible to the general public will not qualify.\n\nThe primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Anthropic, with additional verification from a consensus of credible reporting.","rules_hash":"f5691314f4d16416e39e3fe7f302c4df38d6649181582d607ddcce72a09c2b8f","observed_at":"2026-10-25T17:45:13.498152+00:00"},{"id":"polymarket:3592098","venue":"Polymarket","lab":"openai","event_id":"850712","group":"Next OpenAI GPT Terra (5.7+)","question":"Next OpenAI GPT Terra (5.7+) released by October 31, 2026?","deadline_at":"2026-11-01T04:00:00+00:00","deadline_label":"By Oct 31, 2026 (ET)","bid":0.44,"ask":0.46,"midpoint":0.45,"spread":0.02,"url":"https://polymarket.com/event/next-openai-gpt-terra-5pt7-released-byptptpt/next-openai-gpt-terra-5pt7-released-by-october-31-2026-818","active":true,"volume":22586.534835000002,"volume_unit":"USD","volume_24h":3189.295696,"result":null,"closed_at":null,"opened_at":"2026-08-14T21:36:16.388955Z","rules":"This market will resolve to \"Yes\" if OpenAI's next GPT Terra model (5.7+) is made available to the general public between market creation and the specified date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to \"No\".\n\nA qualifying model must have a name or model identifier that includes \"GPT\" and \"Terra\" and be designated as version 5.7 or higher, regardless of capitalization or surrounding prefixes, suffixes, dates, or descriptors. For example, a version 5.7 or higher named in the same manner as GPT-5.6 Terra would qualify, including a new whole-number generation such as GPT-6 Terra or an Astra-branded release meeting these criteria, while models whose name does not include \"Terra\" or which retain a version designation below 5.7, such as GPT-5.6 Terra, GPT-5.6 Sol, or GPT-5.6 Luna, will not qualify. Fine-tunes, modes, or restricted-access variants of an existing version, such as GPT-5.6-Cyber or GPT-5.6 Sol Ultrafast, will not qualify.\n\nA qualifying model must be launched and publicly accessible, including via open beta or open rolling waitlist signups. A closed beta or any form of private access will not suffice. The release must either be clearly defined and publicly announced by OpenAI as accessible to the general public, or otherwise be made publicly accessible and explicitly labeled on the company's official website. Labeling errors, placeholder text, or version names displayed on the website that do not correspond to a model that is actually accessible to the general public will not qualify.\n\nThe primary resolution source for this market will be official information from OpenAI, with additional verification from a consensus of credible reporting.","rules_hash":"ea3856126dacdfb3c0162c48187389c13a689036e85864a98771a623a97a37e6","observed_at":"2026-10-25T17:45:13.498152+00:00"},{"id":"polymarket:3668605","venue":"Polymarket","lab":"openai","event_id":"850712","group":"Next OpenAI GPT Terra (5.7+)","question":"Next OpenAI GPT Terra (5.7+) released by November 30, 2026?","deadline_at":"2026-12-01T05:00:00+00:00","deadline_label":"By Nov 30, 2026 (ET)","bid":0.833,"ask":0.868,"midpoint":0.8505,"spread":0.035,"url":"https://polymarket.com/event/next-openai-gpt-terra-5pt7-released-byptptpt/next-openai-gpt-terra-5pt7-released-by-november-30-2026","active":true,"volume":19826.614981000002,"volume_unit":"USD","volume_24h":1778.663111,"result":null,"closed_at":null,"opened_at":"2026-08-17T13:31:46.20035Z","rules":"This market will resolve to \"Yes\" if OpenAI's next GPT Terra model (5.7+) is made available to the general public between market creation and the specified date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to \"No\".\n\nA qualifying model must have a name or model identifier that includes \"GPT\" and \"Terra\" and be designated as version 5.7 or higher, regardless of capitalization or surrounding prefixes, suffixes, dates, or descriptors. For example, a version 5.7 or higher named in the same manner as GPT-5.6 Terra would qualify, including a new whole-number generation such as GPT-6 Terra or an Astra-branded release meeting these criteria, while models whose name does not include \"Terra\" or which retain a version designation below 5.7, such as GPT-5.6 Terra, GPT-5.6 Sol, or GPT-5.6 Luna, will not qualify. Fine-tunes, modes, or restricted-access variants of an existing version, such as GPT-5.6-Cyber or GPT-5.6 Sol Ultrafast, will not qualify.\n\nA qualifying model must be launched and publicly accessible, including via open beta or open rolling waitlist signups. A closed beta or any form of private access will not suffice. The release must either be clearly defined and publicly announced by OpenAI as accessible to the general public, or otherwise be made publicly accessible and explicitly labeled on the company's official website. Labeling errors, placeholder text, or version names displayed on the website that do not correspond to a model that is actually accessible to the general public will not qualify.\n\nThe primary resolution source for this market will be official information from OpenAI, with additional verification from a consensus of credible reporting.","rules_hash":"a5808ed2c389dd650cdf4dc65127c2f6e0e3ca111231c27587407c0a0a42e0cf","observed_at":"2026-10-25T17:45:13.498152+00:00"},{"id":"polymarket:6044488","venue":"Polymarket","lab":"openai","event_id":"850712","group":"Next OpenAI GPT Terra (5.7+)","question":"Next OpenAI GPT Terra (5.7+) released by October 26, 2026?","deadline_at":"2026-10-27T04:00:00+00:00","deadline_label":"By Oct 26, 2026 (ET)","bid":0.08,"ask":0.1,"midpoint":0.09,"spread":0.02,"url":"https://polymarket.com/event/next-openai-gpt-terra-5pt7-released-byptptpt/next-openai-gpt-terra-5pt7-released-by-october-26-2026","active":true,"volume":10906.058385,"volume_unit":"USD","volume_24h":3154.236078,"result":null,"closed_at":null,"opened_at":"2026-10-22T15:32:12.160286Z","rules":"This market will resolve to \"Yes\" if OpenAI's next GPT Terra model (5.7+) is made available to the general public between market creation and the specified date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to \"No\".\n\nA qualifying model must have a name or model identifier that includes \"GPT\" and \"Terra\" and be designated as version 5.7 or higher, regardless of capitalization or surrounding prefixes, suffixes, dates, or descriptors. For example, a version 5.7 or higher named in the same manner as GPT-5.6 Terra would qualify, including a new whole-number generation such as GPT-6 Terra or an Astra-branded release meeting these criteria, while models whose name does not include \"Terra\" or which retain a version designation below 5.7, such as GPT-5.6 Terra, GPT-5.6 Sol, or GPT-5.6 Luna, will not qualify. Fine-tunes, modes, or restricted-access variants of an existing version, such as GPT-5.6-Cyber or GPT-5.6 Sol Ultrafast, will not qualify.\n\nA qualifying model must be launched and publicly accessible, including via open beta or open rolling waitlist signups. A closed beta or any form of private access will not suffice. The release must either be clearly defined and publicly announced by OpenAI as accessible to the general public, or otherwise be made publicly accessible and explicitly labeled on the company's official website. Labeling errors, placeholder text, or version names displayed on the website that do not correspond to a model that is actually accessible to the general public will not qualify.\n\nThe primary resolution source for this market will be official information from OpenAI, with additional verification from a consensus of credible reporting.","rules_hash":"2663d63f2af98892991214ae0ff056f5e37f76c3ca611dd6af5ac48d71869c1e","observed_at":"2026-10-25T17:45:13.498152+00:00"},{"id":"polymarket:6044489","venue":"Polymarket","lab":"openai","event_id":"850712","group":"Next OpenAI GPT Terra (5.7+)","question":"Next OpenAI GPT Terra (5.7+) released by October 27, 2026?","deadline_at":"2026-10-28T04:00:00+00:00","deadline_label":"By Oct 27, 2026 (ET)","bid":0.141,"ask":0.219,"midpoint":0.18,"spread":0.078,"url":"https://polymarket.com/event/next-openai-gpt-terra-5pt7-released-byptptpt/next-openai-gpt-terra-5pt7-released-by-october-27-2026","active":true,"volume":1511.88956,"volume_unit":"USD","volume_24h":50.584096,"result":null,"closed_at":null,"opened_at":"2026-10-22T15:32:12.196238Z","rules":"This market will resolve to \"Yes\" if OpenAI's next GPT Terra model (5.7+) is made available to the general public between market creation and the specified date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to \"No\".\n\nA qualifying model must have a name or model identifier that includes \"GPT\" and \"Terra\" and be designated as version 5.7 or higher, regardless of capitalization or surrounding prefixes, suffixes, dates, or descriptors. For example, a version 5.7 or higher named in the same manner as GPT-5.6 Terra would qualify, including a new whole-number generation such as GPT-6 Terra or an Astra-branded release meeting these criteria, while models whose name does not include \"Terra\" or which retain a version designation below 5.7, such as GPT-5.6 Terra, GPT-5.6 Sol, or GPT-5.6 Luna, will not qualify. Fine-tunes, modes, or restricted-access variants of an existing version, such as GPT-5.6-Cyber or GPT-5.6 Sol Ultrafast, will not qualify.\n\nA qualifying model must be launched and publicly accessible, including via open beta or open rolling waitlist signups. A closed beta or any form of private access will not suffice. The release must either be clearly defined and publicly announced by OpenAI as accessible to the general public, or otherwise be made publicly accessible and explicitly labeled on the company's official website. Labeling errors, placeholder text, or version names displayed on the website that do not correspond to a model that is actually accessible to the general public will not qualify.\n\nThe primary resolution source for this market will be official information from OpenAI, with additional verification from a consensus of credible reporting.","rules_hash":"3cfd1b14cb4a849fb8f6bb6ff81313d3a7a2252f84f9d8679b476cfb0c7c9fbe","observed_at":"2026-10-25T17:45:13.498152+00:00"},{"id":"polymarket:6044487","venue":"Polymarket","lab":"openai","event_id":"850712","group":"Next OpenAI GPT Terra (5.7+)","question":"Next OpenAI GPT Terra (5.7+) released by October 30, 2026?","deadline_at":"2026-10-31T04:00:00+00:00","deadline_label":"By Oct 30, 2026 (ET)","bid":0.43,"ask":0.46,"midpoint":0.445,"spread":0.03,"url":"https://polymarket.com/event/next-openai-gpt-terra-5pt7-released-byptptpt/next-openai-gpt-terra-5pt7-released-by-october-30-2026","active":true,"volume":6998.644561,"volume_unit":"USD","volume_24h":1642.5860810000001,"result":null,"closed_at":null,"opened_at":"2026-10-22T15:32:12.15037Z","rules":"This market will resolve to \"Yes\" if OpenAI's next GPT Terra model (5.7+) is made available to the general public between market creation and the specified date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to \"No\".\n\nA qualifying model must have a name or model identifier that includes \"GPT\" and \"Terra\" and be designated as version 5.7 or higher, regardless of capitalization or surrounding prefixes, suffixes, dates, or descriptors. For example, a version 5.7 or higher named in the same manner as GPT-5.6 Terra would qualify, including a new whole-number generation such as GPT-6 Terra or an Astra-branded release meeting these criteria, while models whose name does not include \"Terra\" or which retain a version designation below 5.7, such as GPT-5.6 Terra, GPT-5.6 Sol, or GPT-5.6 Luna, will not qualify. Fine-tunes, modes, or restricted-access variants of an existing version, such as GPT-5.6-Cyber or GPT-5.6 Sol Ultrafast, will not qualify.\n\nA qualifying model must be launched and publicly accessible, including via open beta or open rolling waitlist signups. A closed beta or any form of private access will not suffice. The release must either be clearly defined and publicly announced by OpenAI as accessible to the general public, or otherwise be made publicly accessible and explicitly labeled on the company's official website. Labeling errors, placeholder text, or version names displayed on the website that do not correspond to a model that is actually accessible to the general public will not qualify.\n\nThe primary resolution source for this market will be official information from OpenAI, with additional verification from a consensus of credible reporting.","rules_hash":"ee0e7a441c5defa63cf05b487f6ca6c5497e01027a12bc64b9d856ad37c39724","observed_at":"2026-10-25T17:45:13.498152+00:00"},{"id":"polymarket:6044490","venue":"Polymarket","lab":"openai","event_id":"850712","group":"Next OpenAI GPT Terra (5.7+)","question":"Next OpenAI GPT Terra (5.7+) released by October 28, 2026?","deadline_at":"2026-10-29T04:00:00+00:00","deadline_label":"By Oct 28, 2026 (ET)","bid":0.2,"ask":0.24,"midpoint":0.22,"spread":0.04,"url":"https://polymarket.com/event/next-openai-gpt-terra-5pt7-released-byptptpt/next-openai-gpt-terra-5pt7-released-by-october-28-2026","active":true,"volume":2492.8744720000004,"volume_unit":"USD","volume_24h":1080.592978,"result":null,"closed_at":null,"opened_at":"2026-10-22T15:32:12.413099Z","rules":"This market will resolve to \"Yes\" if OpenAI's next GPT Terra model (5.7+) is made available to the general public between market creation and the specified date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to \"No\".\n\nA qualifying model must have a name or model identifier that includes \"GPT\" and \"Terra\" and be designated as version 5.7 or higher, regardless of capitalization or surrounding prefixes, suffixes, dates, or descriptors. For example, a version 5.7 or higher named in the same manner as GPT-5.6 Terra would qualify, including a new whole-number generation such as GPT-6 Terra or an Astra-branded release meeting these criteria, while models whose name does not include \"Terra\" or which retain a version designation below 5.7, such as GPT-5.6 Terra, GPT-5.6 Sol, or GPT-5.6 Luna, will not qualify. Fine-tunes, modes, or restricted-access variants of an existing version, such as GPT-5.6-Cyber or GPT-5.6 Sol Ultrafast, will not qualify.\n\nA qualifying model must be launched and publicly accessible, including via open beta or open rolling waitlist signups. A closed beta or any form of private access will not suffice. The release must either be clearly defined and publicly announced by OpenAI as accessible to the general public, or otherwise be made publicly accessible and explicitly labeled on the company's official website. Labeling errors, placeholder text, or version names displayed on the website that do not correspond to a model that is actually accessible to the general public will not qualify.\n\nThe primary resolution source for this market will be official information from OpenAI, with additional verification from a consensus of credible reporting.","rules_hash":"f49127b67dc8f94e0cff282194fa6b2fdb4758f461fad5a8981468ea64c94749","observed_at":"2026-10-25T17:45:13.498152+00:00"},{"id":"polymarket:6044491","venue":"Polymarket","lab":"openai","event_id":"850712","group":"Next OpenAI GPT Terra (5.7+)","question":"Next OpenAI GPT Terra (5.7+) released by October 29, 2026?","deadline_at":"2026-10-30T04:00:00+00:00","deadline_label":"By Oct 29, 2026 (ET)","bid":0.36,"ask":0.41,"midpoint":0.385,"spread":0.05,"url":"https://polymarket.com/event/next-openai-gpt-terra-5pt7-released-byptptpt/next-openai-gpt-terra-5pt7-released-by-october-29-2026","active":true,"volume":3548.087346,"volume_unit":"USD","volume_24h":401.16793,"result":null,"closed_at":null,"opened_at":"2026-10-22T15:32:12.778635Z","rules":"This market will resolve to \"Yes\" if OpenAI's next GPT Terra model (5.7+) is made available to the general public between market creation and the specified date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to \"No\".\n\nA qualifying model must have a name or model identifier that includes \"GPT\" and \"Terra\" and be designated as version 5.7 or higher, regardless of capitalization or surrounding prefixes, suffixes, dates, or descriptors. For example, a version 5.7 or higher named in the same manner as GPT-5.6 Terra would qualify, including a new whole-number generation such as GPT-6 Terra or an Astra-branded release meeting these criteria, while models whose name does not include \"Terra\" or which retain a version designation below 5.7, such as GPT-5.6 Terra, GPT-5.6 Sol, or GPT-5.6 Luna, will not qualify. Fine-tunes, modes, or restricted-access variants of an existing version, such as GPT-5.6-Cyber or GPT-5.6 Sol Ultrafast, will not qualify.\n\nA qualifying model must be launched and publicly accessible, including via open beta or open rolling waitlist signups. A closed beta or any form of private access will not suffice. The release must either be clearly defined and publicly announced by OpenAI as accessible to the general public, or otherwise be made publicly accessible and explicitly labeled on the company's official website. Labeling errors, placeholder text, or version names displayed on the website that do not correspond to a model that is actually accessible to the general public will not qualify.\n\nThe primary resolution source for this market will be official information from OpenAI, with additional verification from a consensus of credible reporting.","rules_hash":"8537fa88f47f97ba3179b91a65dbd816307c9eecceee417ba42489502e1f0ee7","observed_at":"2026-10-25T17:45:13.498152+00:00"},{"id":"polymarket:4218310","venue":"Polymarket","lab":"openai","event_id":"965173","group":"GPT Astra 6.1+","question":"Next Astra Model (6.1+) released by October 31, 2026?","deadline_at":"2026-11-01T04:00:00+00:00","deadline_label":"By Oct 31, 2026 (ET)","bid":0.1,"ask":0.12,"midpoint":0.11,"spread":0.02,"url":"https://polymarket.com/event/gpt-astra-6pt1-released-byptptpt/next-astra-model-6pt1-released-by-october-31-2026","active":true,"volume":116945.75964399999,"volume_unit":"USD","volume_24h":5615.229515999999,"result":null,"closed_at":null,"opened_at":"2026-09-04T16:44:51.076719Z","rules":"This market will resolve to \"Yes\" if OpenAI makes a GPT Astra model designated 6.1 or higher available to the general public between market creation and the specified date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to \"No\".\n\nA qualifying model must be an OpenAI model designated as version 6.1 or higher that includes \"Astra\" in its name or model identifier, regardless of capitalization or surrounding prefixes, suffixes, dates, or descriptors. For example, GPT-6.1 Astra, Astra 6.1, or GPT Astra 7 would all qualify. GPT-6 Astra, including any rollout, promotion, Pro or Fast mode, or snapshot of it, will not qualify. Tier-labeled models such as GPT-5.6 Sol, GPT-5.6 Terra, or GPT-5.6 Luna and their successors, and task-specific or modality lines such as GPT-5.6-Cyber, Daybreak models, Codex, GPT Image, or Realtime models, will not qualify.\n\nA qualifying model must be launched and publicly accessible, including via open beta or open rolling waitlist signups. A closed beta or any form of private access will not suffice. The release must either be clearly defined and publicly announced by OpenAI as accessible to the general public, or otherwise be made publicly accessible and explicitly labeled on the company's official website. Labeling errors, placeholder text, or version names displayed on the website that do not correspond to a model that is actually accessible to the general public will not qualify.\n\nThe primary resolution source for this market will be official information from OpenAI, with additional verification from a consensus of credible reporting.","rules_hash":"999228e8ec4ec9ae29600ed7a5a0a2fc77e2e62dc6ee8fb4d05cac1a02886e4b","observed_at":"2026-10-25T17:45:13.498152+00:00"},{"id":"polymarket:4218313","venue":"Polymarket","lab":"openai","event_id":"965173","group":"GPT Astra 6.1+","question":"Next Astra Model (6.1+) released by December 31, 2026?","deadline_at":"2027-01-01T05:00:00+00:00","deadline_label":"By Dec 31, 2026 (ET)","bid":0.83,"ask":0.85,"midpoint":0.84,"spread":0.02,"url":"https://polymarket.com/event/gpt-astra-6pt1-released-byptptpt/next-astra-model-6pt1-released-by-december-31-2026","active":true,"volume":87166.57146099998,"volume_unit":"USD","volume_24h":539.26,"result":null,"closed_at":null,"opened_at":"2026-09-04T16:44:51.34273Z","rules":"This market will resolve to \"Yes\" if OpenAI makes a GPT Astra model designated 6.1 or higher available to the general public between market creation and the specified date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to \"No\".\n\nA qualifying model must be an OpenAI model designated as version 6.1 or higher that includes \"Astra\" in its name or model identifier, regardless of capitalization or surrounding prefixes, suffixes, dates, or descriptors. For example, GPT-6.1 Astra, Astra 6.1, or GPT Astra 7 would all qualify. GPT-6 Astra, including any rollout, promotion, Pro or Fast mode, or snapshot of it, will not qualify. Tier-labeled models such as GPT-5.6 Sol, GPT-5.6 Terra, or GPT-5.6 Luna and their successors, and task-specific or modality lines such as GPT-5.6-Cyber, Daybreak models, Codex, GPT Image, or Realtime models, will not qualify.\n\nA qualifying model must be launched and publicly accessible, including via open beta or open rolling waitlist signups. A closed beta or any form of private access will not suffice. The release must either be clearly defined and publicly announced by OpenAI as accessible to the general public, or otherwise be made publicly accessible and explicitly labeled on the company's official website. Labeling errors, placeholder text, or version names displayed on the website that do not correspond to a model that is actually accessible to the general public will not qualify.\n\nThe primary resolution source for this market will be official information from OpenAI, with additional verification from a consensus of credible reporting.","rules_hash":"febc5ef7cb7fd2a85f3f2f986f27ffe8f26bae6f5b16f596d80891f6671a740c","observed_at":"2026-10-25T17:45:13.498152+00:00"},{"id":"polymarket:5971398","venue":"Polymarket","lab":"openai","event_id":"965173","group":"GPT Astra 6.1+","question":"Next Astra Model (6.1+) released by November 30, 2026?","deadline_at":"2026-12-01T05:00:00+00:00","deadline_label":"By Nov 30, 2026 (ET)","bid":0.5,"ask":0.56,"midpoint":0.53,"spread":0.06,"url":"https://polymarket.com/event/gpt-astra-6pt1-released-byptptpt/next-astra-model-6pt1-released-by-november-30-2026","active":true,"volume":8481.933230999999,"volume_unit":"USD","volume_24h":2501.7397159999996,"result":null,"closed_at":null,"opened_at":"2026-10-20T14:53:35.068764Z","rules":"This market will resolve to \"Yes\" if OpenAI makes a GPT Astra model designated 6.1 or higher available to the general public between market creation and the specified date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to \"No\".\n\nA qualifying model must be an OpenAI model designated as version 6.1 or higher that includes \"Astra\" in its name or model identifier, regardless of capitalization or surrounding prefixes, suffixes, dates, or descriptors. For example, GPT-6.1 Astra, Astra 6.1, or GPT Astra 7 would all qualify. GPT-6 Astra, including any rollout, promotion, Pro or Fast mode, or snapshot of it, will not qualify. Tier-labeled models such as GPT-5.6 Sol, GPT-5.6 Terra, or GPT-5.6 Luna and their successors, and task-specific or modality lines such as GPT-5.6-Cyber, Daybreak models, Codex, GPT Image, or Realtime models, will not qualify.\n\nA qualifying model must be launched and publicly accessible, including via open beta or open rolling waitlist signups. A closed beta or any form of private access will not suffice. The release must either be clearly defined and publicly announced by OpenAI as accessible to the general public, or otherwise be made publicly accessible and explicitly labeled on the company's official website. Labeling errors, placeholder text, or version names displayed on the website that do not correspond to a model that is actually accessible to the general public will not qualify.\n\nThe primary resolution source for this market will be official information from OpenAI, with additional verification from a consensus of credible reporting.","rules_hash":"f1357ca78a204063f7cf746d21fdfc0d1bbcde86a1bb86397f4d64437d35db16","observed_at":"2026-10-25T17:45:13.498152+00:00"},{"id":"polymarket:5997211","venue":"Polymarket","lab":"openai","event_id":"965173","group":"GPT Astra 6.1+","question":"Next Astra Model (6.1+) released by November 15, 2026?","deadline_at":"2026-11-16T05:00:00+00:00","deadline_label":"By Nov 15, 2026 (ET)","bid":0.38,"ask":0.41,"midpoint":0.395,"spread":0.03,"url":"https://polymarket.com/event/gpt-astra-6pt1-released-byptptpt/next-astra-model-6pt1-released-by-november-15-2026","active":true,"volume":3840.02889,"volume_unit":"USD","volume_24h":293.24,"result":null,"closed_at":null,"opened_at":"2026-10-20T23:01:55.936155Z","rules":"This market will resolve to \"Yes\" if OpenAI makes a GPT Astra model designated 6.1 or higher available to the general public between market creation and the specified date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to \"No\".\n\nA qualifying model must be an OpenAI model designated as version 6.1 or higher that includes \"Astra\" in its name or model identifier, regardless of capitalization or surrounding prefixes, suffixes, dates, or descriptors. For example, GPT-6.1 Astra, Astra 6.1, or GPT Astra 7 would all qualify. GPT-6 Astra, including any rollout, promotion, Pro or Fast mode, or snapshot of it, will not qualify. Tier-labeled models such as GPT-5.6 Sol, GPT-5.6 Terra, or GPT-5.6 Luna and their successors, and task-specific or modality lines such as GPT-5.6-Cyber, Daybreak models, Codex, GPT Image, or Realtime models, will not qualify.\n\nA qualifying model must be launched and publicly accessible, including via open beta or open rolling waitlist signups. A closed beta or any form of private access will not suffice. The release must either be clearly defined and publicly announced by OpenAI as accessible to the general public, or otherwise be made publicly accessible and explicitly labeled on the company's official website. Labeling errors, placeholder text, or version names displayed on the website that do not correspond to a model that is actually accessible to the general public will not qualify.\n\nThe primary resolution source for this market will be official information from OpenAI, with additional verification from a consensus of credible reporting.","rules_hash":"576f942102352eb3e713b80f366b51a3256370bc127d6c518dba7df0266997aa","observed_at":"2026-10-25T17:45:13.498152+00:00"},{"id":"polymarket:5997213","venue":"Polymarket","lab":"openai","event_id":"965173","group":"GPT Astra 6.1+","question":"Next Astra Model (6.1+) released by December 15, 2026?","deadline_at":"2026-12-16T05:00:00+00:00","deadline_label":"By Dec 15, 2026 (ET)","bid":0.74,"ask":0.76,"midpoint":0.75,"spread":0.02,"url":"https://polymarket.com/event/gpt-astra-6pt1-released-byptptpt/next-astra-model-6pt1-released-by-december-15-2026","active":true,"volume":2968.5317569999997,"volume_unit":"USD","volume_24h":499.84762,"result":null,"closed_at":null,"opened_at":"2026-10-20T23:01:56.003026Z","rules":"This market will resolve to \"Yes\" if OpenAI makes a GPT Astra model designated 6.1 or higher available to the general public between market creation and the specified date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to \"No\".\n\nA qualifying model must be an OpenAI model designated as version 6.1 or higher that includes \"Astra\" in its name or model identifier, regardless of capitalization or surrounding prefixes, suffixes, dates, or descriptors. For example, GPT-6.1 Astra, Astra 6.1, or GPT Astra 7 would all qualify. GPT-6 Astra, including any rollout, promotion, Pro or Fast mode, or snapshot of it, will not qualify. Tier-labeled models such as GPT-5.6 Sol, GPT-5.6 Terra, or GPT-5.6 Luna and their successors, and task-specific or modality lines such as GPT-5.6-Cyber, Daybreak models, Codex, GPT Image, or Realtime models, will not qualify.\n\nA qualifying model must be launched and publicly accessible, including via open beta or open rolling waitlist signups. A closed beta or any form of private access will not suffice. The release must either be clearly defined and publicly announced by OpenAI as accessible to the general public, or otherwise be made publicly accessible and explicitly labeled on the company's official website. Labeling errors, placeholder text, or version names displayed on the website that do not correspond to a model that is actually accessible to the general public will not qualify.\n\nThe primary resolution source for this market will be official information from OpenAI, with additional verification from a consensus of credible reporting.","rules_hash":"14e1472ca9c2ae7f379069063f53304fb59e03629779e47649612cac0aecdcd9","observed_at":"2026-10-25T17:45:13.498152+00:00"},{"id":"polymarket:4216092","venue":"Polymarket","lab":"openai","event_id":"964775","group":"GPT-7","question":"GPT-7 released by June 30, 2027?","deadline_at":"2027-07-01T04:00:00+00:00","deadline_label":"By Jun 30, 2027 (ET)","bid":0.44,"ask":0.51,"midpoint":0.475,"spread":0.07,"url":"https://polymarket.com/event/gpt-7-released-byptptpt/gpt-7-released-by-june-30-2027","active":true,"volume":11595.943349000001,"volume_unit":"USD","volume_24h":649.1800000000001,"result":null,"closed_at":null,"opened_at":"2026-09-04T15:33:46.573408Z","rules":"This market will resolve to \"Yes\" if OpenAI's GPT-7 model is made available to the general public between market creation and the specified date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to \"No\".\n\nA qualifying model must have a name or model identifier that includes \"GPT\" and be designated as version 7 or higher, regardless of capitalization or surrounding prefixes, suffixes, dates, or descriptors. Any of OpenAI's general-purpose model families qualifies, including Astra, Sol, Terra, Luna, or a successor general-purpose family, provided the version designation of 7 or higher appears in the name or model identifier. For example, GPT-7, GPT-7 Astra, GPT-7 Sol, or a later version such as GPT-7.1 or GPT-8 would qualify, while models that retain a version designation below 7, such as GPT-6 Astra or GPT-6.1, and models that do not carry an explicit version number of 7 or higher in their name or identifier, regardless of how they are described or positioned, will not qualify. Task-specific or modality lines such as GPT-5.6-Cyber, Daybreak models, Codex, GPT Image, Realtime, transcription, or text-to-speech models will not qualify.\n\nA qualifying model must be launched and publicly accessible, including via open beta or open rolling waitlist signups. A closed beta or any form of private access will not suffice. The release must either be clearly defined and publicly announced by OpenAI as accessible to the general public, or otherwise be made publicly accessible and explicitly labeled on the company's official website. Labeling errors, placeholder text, or version names displayed on the website that do not correspond to a model that is actually accessible to the general public will not qualify.\n\nThe primary resolution source for this market will be official information from OpenAI, with additional verification from a consensus of credible reporting.","rules_hash":"528ade24d72e3625e8cb24f09187c1605f6b26a4793d4d8d45dff72440247726","observed_at":"2026-10-25T17:45:13.498152+00:00"},{"id":"polymarket:4216093","venue":"Polymarket","lab":"openai","event_id":"964775","group":"GPT-7","question":"GPT-7 released by December 31, 2027?","deadline_at":"2028-01-01T05:00:00+00:00","deadline_label":"By Dec 31, 2027 (ET)","bid":0.84,"ask":0.87,"midpoint":0.855,"spread":0.03,"url":"https://polymarket.com/event/gpt-7-released-byptptpt/gpt-7-released-by-december-31-2027","active":true,"volume":11072.716984,"volume_unit":"USD","volume_24h":1878.975081,"result":null,"closed_at":null,"opened_at":"2026-09-04T15:33:46.857499Z","rules":"This market will resolve to \"Yes\" if OpenAI's GPT-7 model is made available to the general public between market creation and the specified date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to \"No\".\n\nA qualifying model must have a name or model identifier that includes \"GPT\" and be designated as version 7 or higher, regardless of capitalization or surrounding prefixes, suffixes, dates, or descriptors. Any of OpenAI's general-purpose model families qualifies, including Astra, Sol, Terra, Luna, or a successor general-purpose family, provided the version designation of 7 or higher appears in the name or model identifier. For example, GPT-7, GPT-7 Astra, GPT-7 Sol, or a later version such as GPT-7.1 or GPT-8 would qualify, while models that retain a version designation below 7, such as GPT-6 Astra or GPT-6.1, and models that do not carry an explicit version number of 7 or higher in their name or identifier, regardless of how they are described or positioned, will not qualify. Task-specific or modality lines such as GPT-5.6-Cyber, Daybreak models, Codex, GPT Image, Realtime, transcription, or text-to-speech models will not qualify.\n\nA qualifying model must be launched and publicly accessible, including via open beta or open rolling waitlist signups. A closed beta or any form of private access will not suffice. The release must either be clearly defined and publicly announced by OpenAI as accessible to the general public, or otherwise be made publicly accessible and explicitly labeled on the company's official website. Labeling errors, placeholder text, or version names displayed on the website that do not correspond to a model that is actually accessible to the general public will not qualify.\n\nThe primary resolution source for this market will be official information from OpenAI, with additional verification from a consensus of credible reporting.","rules_hash":"3a40d7c85ccfabd2fcc7b762c24fae6e34419f368c5983846eaf8f3ceac8439d","observed_at":"2026-10-25T17:45:13.498152+00:00"},{"id":"polymarket:4892005","venue":"Polymarket","lab":"openai","event_id":"1071102","group":"Next GPT Luna (6.1+)","question":"Next GPT Luna (6.1+) released by November 30, 2026?","deadline_at":"2026-12-01T05:00:00+00:00","deadline_label":"By Nov 30, 2026 (ET)","bid":0.61,"ask":0.65,"midpoint":0.63,"spread":0.04,"url":"https://polymarket.com/event/next-gpt-luna-6pt1-released-byptptpt/next-gpt-luna-6pt1-released-by-november-30-2026","active":true,"volume":4755.950065,"volume_unit":"USD","volume_24h":882.19,"result":null,"closed_at":null,"opened_at":"2026-09-23T20:44:54.434603Z","rules":"This market will resolve to \"Yes\" if OpenAI's next GPT Luna model (6.1+) is made available to the general public between market creation and the specified date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to \"No\".\n\nA qualifying model must have a name or model identifier that includes \"GPT\" and \"Luna\" and be designated as version 6.1 or higher, regardless of capitalization or surrounding prefixes, suffixes, dates, or descriptors. For example, a version 6.1 or higher named in the same manner as GPT-5.6 Luna or GPT-6 Luna would qualify, including a new whole-number generation such as GPT-7 Luna or an Astra-branded release meeting these criteria, while models whose name does not include \"Luna\" or which retain a version designation below 6.1, such as GPT-6 Luna (released September 22, 2026), including any rollout, promotion, or snapshot of it, GPT-6 Sol, or GPT-6 Astra, will not qualify. Fine-tunes, modes, or restricted-access variants of an existing version, such as GPT-5.6-Cyber or GPT-6 Luna Ultrafast, will not qualify.\n\nA qualifying model must be launched and publicly accessible, including via open beta or open rolling waitlist signups. A closed beta or any form of private access will not suffice. The release must either be clearly defined and publicly announced by OpenAI as accessible to the general public, or otherwise be made publicly accessible and explicitly labeled on the company's official website. Labeling errors, placeholder text, or version names displayed on the website that do not correspond to a model that is actually accessible to the general public will not qualify.\n\nThe primary resolution source for this market will be official information from OpenAI, with additional verification from a consensus of credible reporting.","rules_hash":"1eaac37404d234e8ecd8e180f30c699514ade1a07e92b4ecdc25a5df2cc89bf3","observed_at":"2026-10-25T17:45:13.498152+00:00"},{"id":"polymarket:4892018","venue":"Polymarket","lab":"openai","event_id":"1071102","group":"Next GPT Luna (6.1+)","question":"Next GPT Luna (6.1+) released by December 31, 2026?","deadline_at":"2027-01-01T05:00:00+00:00","deadline_label":"By Dec 31, 2026 (ET)","bid":0.87,"ask":0.92,"midpoint":0.895,"spread":0.05,"url":"https://polymarket.com/event/next-gpt-luna-6pt1-released-byptptpt/next-gpt-luna-6pt1-released-by-december-31-2026","active":true,"volume":2781.4500780000003,"volume_unit":"USD","volume_24h":40.0,"result":null,"closed_at":null,"opened_at":"2026-09-23T20:44:55.044954Z","rules":"This market will resolve to \"Yes\" if OpenAI's next GPT Luna model (6.1+) is made available to the general public between market creation and the specified date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to \"No\".\n\nA qualifying model must have a name or model identifier that includes \"GPT\" and \"Luna\" and be designated as version 6.1 or higher, regardless of capitalization or surrounding prefixes, suffixes, dates, or descriptors. For example, a version 6.1 or higher named in the same manner as GPT-5.6 Luna or GPT-6 Luna would qualify, including a new whole-number generation such as GPT-7 Luna or an Astra-branded release meeting these criteria, while models whose name does not include \"Luna\" or which retain a version designation below 6.1, such as GPT-6 Luna (released September 22, 2026), including any rollout, promotion, or snapshot of it, GPT-6 Sol, or GPT-6 Astra, will not qualify. Fine-tunes, modes, or restricted-access variants of an existing version, such as GPT-5.6-Cyber or GPT-6 Luna Ultrafast, will not qualify.\n\nA qualifying model must be launched and publicly accessible, including via open beta or open rolling waitlist signups. A closed beta or any form of private access will not suffice. The release must either be clearly defined and publicly announced by OpenAI as accessible to the general public, or otherwise be made publicly accessible and explicitly labeled on the company's official website. Labeling errors, placeholder text, or version names displayed on the website that do not correspond to a model that is actually accessible to the general public will not qualify.\n\nThe primary resolution source for this market will be official information from OpenAI, with additional verification from a consensus of credible reporting.","rules_hash":"10c648dbeb9179a0cc3439c4a353b40078aa4424e7e41bc09bec2f8164d0fdb7","observed_at":"2026-10-25T17:45:13.498152+00:00"},{"id":"polymarket:6104445","venue":"Polymarket","lab":"moonshotai","event_id":"1243968","group":"Next Kimi K model (3.2+)","question":"Next Kimi K model (3.2+) released by December 31, 2026?","deadline_at":"2027-01-01T05:00:00+00:00","deadline_label":"By Dec 31, 2026 (ET)","bid":0.45,"ask":0.46,"midpoint":0.455,"spread":0.01,"url":"https://polymarket.com/event/next-kimi-k-model-3pt2-released-byptptpt/next-kimi-k-model-3pt2-released-by-december-31-2026","active":true,"volume":150.454546,"volume_unit":"USD","volume_24h":150.454546,"result":null,"closed_at":null,"opened_at":"2026-10-24T03:33:46.964947Z","rules":"This market will resolve to \"Yes\" if Moonshot AI's next Kimi K model (3.2+) is made available to the general public between market creation and the specified date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to \"No\".\n\nA qualifying model must have a name or model identifier that includes \"Kimi\" and \"K\" followed by a version designation of 3.2 or higher, regardless of capitalization, hyphenation, spacing, or surrounding prefixes, suffixes, dates, or descriptors such as \"Pro\" or \"Highspeed\". For example, a version 3.2 or higher named in the same manner as Kimi K3 or Kimi K3.1 Pro would qualify, including a new whole-number generation such as Kimi K4, while models which retain a version designation below 3.2, such as Kimi K3.1 Pro or Kimi K3.1 Pro Highspeed (released October 23, 2026), including any open-weight release, rollout, or snapshot of them, or Kimi K2.8 Preview, will not qualify. Models outside the Kimi K series, such as Kimi-VL, Kimi-Audio, Kimi-Dev, or Kimi Linear, will not qualify.\n\nA qualifying model must be launched and publicly accessible, including via open beta or open rolling waitlist signups. A closed beta or any form of private access will not suffice. The release must either be clearly defined and publicly announced by Moonshot AI as accessible to the general public, or otherwise be made publicly accessible and explicitly labeled on the company's official website. Labeling errors, placeholder text, or version names displayed on the website that do not correspond to a model that is actually accessible to the general public will not qualify.\n\nThe primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Moonshot AI, with additional verification from a consensus of credible reporting.","rules_hash":"3641683b699c32e6b005dbeafda943ce1ef796ac1010c7d18f02c3479a3e5a5c","observed_at":"2026-10-25T17:45:13.498152+00:00"},{"id":"polymarket:6104446","venue":"Polymarket","lab":"moonshotai","event_id":"1243968","group":"Next Kimi K model (3.2+)","question":"Next Kimi K model (3.2+) released by February 28, 2027?","deadline_at":"2027-03-01T05:00:00+00:00","deadline_label":"By Feb 28, 2027 (ET)","bid":0.43,"ask":0.66,"midpoint":0.545,"spread":0.23,"url":"https://polymarket.com/event/next-kimi-k-model-3pt2-released-byptptpt/next-kimi-k-model-3pt2-released-by-february-28-2027","active":true,"volume":929.66237,"volume_unit":"USD","volume_24h":455.03,"result":null,"closed_at":null,"opened_at":"2026-10-24T03:33:47.695686Z","rules":"This market will resolve to \"Yes\" if Moonshot AI's next Kimi K model (3.2+) is made available to the general public between market creation and the specified date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to \"No\".\n\nA qualifying model must have a name or model identifier that includes \"Kimi\" and \"K\" followed by a version designation of 3.2 or higher, regardless of capitalization, hyphenation, spacing, or surrounding prefixes, suffixes, dates, or descriptors such as \"Pro\" or \"Highspeed\". For example, a version 3.2 or higher named in the same manner as Kimi K3 or Kimi K3.1 Pro would qualify, including a new whole-number generation such as Kimi K4, while models which retain a version designation below 3.2, such as Kimi K3.1 Pro or Kimi K3.1 Pro Highspeed (released October 23, 2026), including any open-weight release, rollout, or snapshot of them, or Kimi K2.8 Preview, will not qualify. Models outside the Kimi K series, such as Kimi-VL, Kimi-Audio, Kimi-Dev, or Kimi Linear, will not qualify.\n\nA qualifying model must be launched and publicly accessible, including via open beta or open rolling waitlist signups. A closed beta or any form of private access will not suffice. The release must either be clearly defined and publicly announced by Moonshot AI as accessible to the general public, or otherwise be made publicly accessible and explicitly labeled on the company's official website. Labeling errors, placeholder text, or version names displayed on the website that do not correspond to a model that is actually accessible to the general public will not qualify.\n\nThe primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Moonshot AI, with additional verification from a consensus of credible reporting.","rules_hash":"c432b905d5c69de4dbae80c78d9941d128f58912c1ab4542aa873e46d2a1c11e","observed_at":"2026-10-25T17:45:13.498152+00:00"},{"id":"polymarket:3091685","venue":"Polymarket","lab":"moonshotai","event_id":"745344","group":"Kimi K4","question":"Kimi K4 released by October 31, 2026?","deadline_at":"2026-11-01T04:00:00+00:00","deadline_label":"By Oct 31, 2026 (ET)","bid":0.001,"ask":0.002,"midpoint":0.0015,"spread":0.001,"url":"https://polymarket.com/event/kimi-k4-released-by-20260722184115883/kimi-k4-released-by-october-31-2026-20260722184115884","active":true,"volume":20430.521661000002,"volume_unit":"USD","volume_24h":20.0,"result":null,"closed_at":null,"opened_at":"2026-07-24T22:01:46.672162Z","rules":"This market will resolve to \"Yes\" if Moonshot AI’s Kimi K4 model is made available to the general public by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to \"No.\"\n\nKimi K4 refers to a product explicitly named Kimi K4 (e.g., Kimi K4.0 would count), or one that is recognized as the new flagship model or a successor to Kimi K3.0, consistent with the progression from Kimi K2 to Kimi K3. The release of any model within the Kimi K4 family will qualify as “Kimi K4”.\n\nProducts labeled as Kimi K3.5 or similar incremental versions will not count for this market’s resolution.\n\nA qualifying model must be launched and publicly accessible, including via open beta or open rolling waitlist signups. A closed beta or any form of private access will not suffice.\n\nThe release must be either clearly defined and publicly announced by Moonshot AI as being accessible to the general public or otherwise made publicly accessible and explicitly labeled within the company’s official website. Labeling errors, placeholder text, or version names displayed on the website that do not correspond to a model that is actually accessible to the general public will not qualify.\n\nThe primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Moonshot AI, with additional verification from a consensus of credible reporting.","rules_hash":"b056947da72e9f6e3ec714dd59269c37d186f79a6bf15a5e655c0dd8cada92cb","observed_at":"2026-10-25T17:45:13.498152+00:00"},{"id":"polymarket:3091686","venue":"Polymarket","lab":"moonshotai","event_id":"745344","group":"Kimi K4","question":"Kimi K4 released by December 31, 2026?","deadline_at":"2027-01-01T05:00:00+00:00","deadline_label":"By Dec 31, 2026 (ET)","bid":0.06,"ask":0.09,"midpoint":0.075,"spread":0.03,"url":"https://polymarket.com/event/kimi-k4-released-by-20260722184115883/kimi-k4-released-by-december-31-2026-20260722184115885","active":true,"volume":11715.353654999999,"volume_unit":"USD","volume_24h":491.15,"result":null,"closed_at":null,"opened_at":"2026-07-24T22:01:46.856103Z","rules":"This market will resolve to \"Yes\" if Moonshot AI’s Kimi K4 model is made available to the general public by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to \"No.\"\n\nKimi K4 refers to a product explicitly named Kimi K4 (e.g., Kimi K4.0 would count), or one that is recognized as the new flagship model or a successor to Kimi K3.0, consistent with the progression from Kimi K2 to Kimi K3. The release of any model within the Kimi K4 family will qualify as “Kimi K4”.\n\nProducts labeled as Kimi K3.5 or similar incremental versions will not count for this market’s resolution.\n\nA qualifying model must be launched and publicly accessible, including via open beta or open rolling waitlist signups. A closed beta or any form of private access will not suffice.\n\nThe release must be either clearly defined and publicly announced by Moonshot AI as being accessible to the general public or otherwise made publicly accessible and explicitly labeled within the company’s official website. Labeling errors, placeholder text, or version names displayed on the website that do not correspond to a model that is actually accessible to the general public will not qualify.\n\nThe primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Moonshot AI, with additional verification from a consensus of credible reporting.","rules_hash":"138b818c4c0cbd20a9cdb74055599af72588f279bb6d5eda30f079d61972fcab","observed_at":"2026-10-25T17:45:13.498152+00:00"},{"id":"polymarket:4852555","venue":"Polymarket","lab":"moonshotai","event_id":"745344","group":"Kimi K4","question":"Kimi K4 released by March 31, 2027?","deadline_at":"2027-04-01T04:00:00+00:00","deadline_label":"By Mar 31, 2027 (ET)","bid":0.26,"ask":0.261,"midpoint":0.2605,"spread":0.001,"url":"https://polymarket.com/event/kimi-k4-released-by-20260722184115883/kimi-k4-released-by-march-31-2027","active":true,"volume":2576.0510179999997,"volume_unit":"USD","volume_24h":null,"result":null,"closed_at":null,"opened_at":"2026-09-22T19:44:26.109055Z","rules":"This market will resolve to \"Yes\" if Moonshot AI’s Kimi K4 model is made available to the general public by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to \"No.\"\n\nKimi K4 refers to a product explicitly named Kimi K4 (e.g., Kimi K4.0 would count), or one that is recognized as the new flagship model or a successor to Kimi K3.0, consistent with the progression from Kimi K2 to Kimi K3. The release of any model within the Kimi K4 family will qualify as “Kimi K4”.\n\nProducts labeled as Kimi K3.5 or similar incremental versions will not count for this market’s resolution.\n\nA qualifying model must be launched and publicly accessible, including via open beta or open rolling waitlist signups. A closed beta or any form of private access will not suffice.\n\nThe release must be either clearly defined and publicly announced by Moonshot AI as being accessible to the general public or otherwise made publicly accessible and explicitly labeled within the company’s official website. Labeling errors, placeholder text, or version names displayed on the website that do not correspond to a model that is actually accessible to the general public will not qualify.\n\nThe primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Moonshot AI, with additional verification from a consensus of credible reporting.","rules_hash":"d9bb6d7695f0373ed5ad9cd72aaa7d7c807f34b3fb98a57645aa023d9b6c46f1","observed_at":"2026-10-25T17:45:13.498152+00:00"},{"id":"polymarket:5167253","venue":"Polymarket","lab":"openai","event_id":"1111243","group":"Next GPT Sol (6.2+)","question":"Next GPT Sol (6.2+) released by November 30, 2026?","deadline_at":"2026-12-01T05:00:00+00:00","deadline_label":"By Nov 30, 2026 (ET)","bid":0.57,"ask":0.61,"midpoint":0.59,"spread":0.04,"url":"https://polymarket.com/event/next-gpt-sol-6pt2-released-byptptpt/next-gpt-sol-6pt2-released-by-november-30-2026","active":true,"volume":5564.347986,"volume_unit":"USD","volume_24h":200.995,"result":null,"closed_at":null,"opened_at":"2026-10-01T00:15:08.376156Z","rules":"This market will resolve to \"Yes\" if OpenAI's next GPT Sol model (6.2+) is made available to the general public between market creation and the specified date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to \"No\".\n\nA qualifying model must have a name or model identifier that includes \"GPT\" and \"Sol\" and be designated as version 6.2 or higher, regardless of capitalization or surrounding prefixes, suffixes, dates, or descriptors. For example, a version 6.2 or higher named in the same manner as GPT-6 Sol or GPT-6.1 Sol would qualify, including a new whole-number generation such as GPT-7 Sol or an Astra-branded release meeting these criteria, while models whose name does not include \"Sol\" or which retain a version designation below 6.2, such as GPT-6.1 Sol (released September 29, 2026), including any rollout, promotion, or snapshot of it, GPT-6 Luna, or GPT-6 Astra, will not qualify. Fine-tunes, modes, or restricted-access variants of an existing version, such as GPT-5.6-Cyber or GPT-6.1 Sol Ultrafast, will not qualify.\n\nA qualifying model must be launched and publicly accessible, including via open beta or open rolling waitlist signups. A closed beta or any form of private access will not suffice. The release must either be clearly defined and publicly announced by OpenAI as accessible to the general public, or otherwise be made publicly accessible and explicitly labeled on the company's official website. Labeling errors, placeholder text, or version names displayed on the website that do not correspond to a model that is actually accessible to the general public will not qualify.\n\nThe primary resolution source for this market will be official information from OpenAI, with additional verification from a consensus of credible reporting.","rules_hash":"51dd77f4cd40e308269ff62fdff37ec84ec25d41967bfd8ef377fb908a4df67c","observed_at":"2026-10-25T17:45:13.498152+00:00"},{"id":"polymarket:5167254","venue":"Polymarket","lab":"openai","event_id":"1111243","group":"Next GPT Sol (6.2+)","question":"Next GPT Sol (6.2+) released by December 31, 2026?","deadline_at":"2027-01-01T05:00:00+00:00","deadline_label":"By Dec 31, 2026 (ET)","bid":0.68,"ask":0.75,"midpoint":0.715,"spread":0.07,"url":"https://polymarket.com/event/next-gpt-sol-6pt2-released-byptptpt/next-gpt-sol-6pt2-released-by-december-31-2026","active":true,"volume":1510.628828,"volume_unit":"USD","volume_24h":50.0,"result":null,"closed_at":null,"opened_at":"2026-10-01T00:15:08.737263Z","rules":"This market will resolve to \"Yes\" if OpenAI's next GPT Sol model (6.2+) is made available to the general public between market creation and the specified date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to \"No\".\n\nA qualifying model must have a name or model identifier that includes \"GPT\" and \"Sol\" and be designated as version 6.2 or higher, regardless of capitalization or surrounding prefixes, suffixes, dates, or descriptors. For example, a version 6.2 or higher named in the same manner as GPT-6 Sol or GPT-6.1 Sol would qualify, including a new whole-number generation such as GPT-7 Sol or an Astra-branded release meeting these criteria, while models whose name does not include \"Sol\" or which retain a version designation below 6.2, such as GPT-6.1 Sol (released September 29, 2026), including any rollout, promotion, or snapshot of it, GPT-6 Luna, or GPT-6 Astra, will not qualify. Fine-tunes, modes, or restricted-access variants of an existing version, such as GPT-5.6-Cyber or GPT-6.1 Sol Ultrafast, will not qualify.\n\nA qualifying model must be launched and publicly accessible, including via open beta or open rolling waitlist signups. A closed beta or any form of private access will not suffice. The release must either be clearly defined and publicly announced by OpenAI as accessible to the general public, or otherwise be made publicly accessible and explicitly labeled on the company's official website. Labeling errors, placeholder text, or version names displayed on the website that do not correspond to a model that is actually accessible to the general public will not qualify.\n\nThe primary resolution source for this market will be official information from OpenAI, with additional verification from a consensus of credible reporting.","rules_hash":"48b385448c3c14757e9dc24a783e32c846693f509961f686f2db19b511c8bfec","observed_at":"2026-10-25T17:45:13.498152+00:00"},{"id":"polymarket:6025201","venue":"Polymarket","lab":"openai","event_id":"1111243","group":"Next GPT Sol (6.2+)","question":"Next GPT Sol (6.2+) released by November 15, 2026?","deadline_at":"2026-11-16T05:00:00+00:00","deadline_label":"By Nov 15, 2026 (ET)","bid":0.13,"ask":0.41,"midpoint":0.27,"spread":0.28,"url":"https://polymarket.com/event/next-gpt-sol-6pt2-released-byptptpt/next-gpt-sol-6pt2-released-by-november-15-2026","active":true,"volume":525.329842,"volume_unit":"USD","volume_24h":200.4,"result":null,"closed_at":null,"opened_at":"2026-10-21T19:49:57.969388Z","rules":"This market will resolve to \"Yes\" if OpenAI's next GPT Sol model (6.2+) is made available to the general public between market creation and the specified date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to \"No\".\n\nA qualifying model must have a name or model identifier that includes \"GPT\" and \"Sol\" and be designated as version 6.2 or higher, regardless of capitalization or surrounding prefixes, suffixes, dates, or descriptors. For example, a version 6.2 or higher named in the same manner as GPT-6 Sol or GPT-6.1 Sol would qualify, including a new whole-number generation such as GPT-7 Sol or an Astra-branded release meeting these criteria, while models whose name does not include \"Sol\" or which retain a version designation below 6.2, such as GPT-6.1 Sol (released September 29, 2026), including any rollout, promotion, or snapshot of it, GPT-6 Luna, or GPT-6 Astra, will not qualify. Fine-tunes, modes, or restricted-access variants of an existing version, such as GPT-5.6-Cyber or GPT-6.1 Sol Ultrafast, will not qualify.\n\nA qualifying model must be launched and publicly accessible, including via open beta or open rolling waitlist signups. A closed beta or any form of private access will not suffice. The release must either be clearly defined and publicly announced by OpenAI as accessible to the general public, or otherwise be made publicly accessible and explicitly labeled on the company's official website. Labeling errors, placeholder text, or version names displayed on the website that do not correspond to a model that is actually accessible to the general public will not qualify.\n\nThe primary resolution source for this market will be official information from OpenAI, with additional verification from a consensus of credible reporting.","rules_hash":"845c901e60be6de395e25dff0dc6d6d55de8f723217ebbf3261244ceb088dd20","observed_at":"2026-10-25T17:45:13.498152+00:00"},{"id":"polymarket:4215003","venue":"Polymarket","lab":"anthropic","event_id":"964598","group":"Claude 6","question":"Claude 6 released by March 31, 2027?","deadline_at":"2027-04-01T04:00:00+00:00","deadline_label":"By Mar 31, 2027 (ET)","bid":0.36,"ask":0.4,"midpoint":0.38,"spread":0.04,"url":"https://polymarket.com/event/claude-6-released-byptptpt/claude-6-released-by-march-31-2027","active":true,"volume":19259.316466,"volume_unit":"USD","volume_24h":359.45946,"result":null,"closed_at":null,"opened_at":"2026-09-04T14:58:35.535128Z","rules":"This market will resolve to \"Yes\" if Anthropic's Claude 6 model is made available to the general public between market creation and the specified date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to \"No\".\n\nA qualifying model must have a name or model identifier that includes \"Claude\" and be designated as version 6 or higher, regardless of capitalization or surrounding prefixes, suffixes, dates, or descriptors. Any of Anthropic's general-purpose model families qualifies, including Fable, Opus, Sonnet, Haiku, or a successor general-purpose family, provided the version designation of 6 or higher appears in the name or model identifier. For example, Claude Fable 6, Claude Opus 6, Claude Sonnet 6, or a later version such as Claude Fable 6.1 or Claude 7 would qualify, while models that retain a version designation below 6, such as Claude Fable 5.1 or Claude Opus 5, and models that do not carry an explicit version number of 6 or higher in their name or identifier, regardless of how they are described or positioned, will not qualify. A Mythos-branded release available only through Anthropic's verification or trusted-access programs, and task-specific products or restricted lines such as Claude Code, Claude Gov, or Claude Security, will not qualify on their own.\n\nA qualifying model must be launched and publicly accessible, including via open beta or open rolling waitlist signups. A closed beta or any form of private access will not suffice. The release must either be clearly defined and publicly announced by Anthropic as accessible to the general public, or otherwise be made publicly accessible and explicitly labeled on the company's official website. Labeling errors, placeholder text, or version names displayed on the website that do not correspond to a model that is actually accessible to the general public will not qualify.\n\nThe primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Anthropic, with additional verification from a consensus of credible reporting.","rules_hash":"ccf40b19ef6f85f82cef3f48c2ecbb895b02e9c233108e305f6c56d740e6f5fd","observed_at":"2026-10-25T17:45:13.498152+00:00"},{"id":"polymarket:4215004","venue":"Polymarket","lab":"anthropic","event_id":"964598","group":"Claude 6","question":"Claude 6 released by June 30, 2027?","deadline_at":"2027-07-01T04:00:00+00:00","deadline_label":"By Jun 30, 2027 (ET)","bid":0.71,"ask":0.72,"midpoint":0.715,"spread":0.01,"url":"https://polymarket.com/event/claude-6-released-byptptpt/claude-6-released-by-june-30-2027","active":true,"volume":12248.949272999998,"volume_unit":"USD","volume_24h":null,"result":null,"closed_at":null,"opened_at":"2026-09-04T14:58:35.876145Z","rules":"This market will resolve to \"Yes\" if Anthropic's Claude 6 model is made available to the general public between market creation and the specified date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to \"No\".\n\nA qualifying model must have a name or model identifier that includes \"Claude\" and be designated as version 6 or higher, regardless of capitalization or surrounding prefixes, suffixes, dates, or descriptors. Any of Anthropic's general-purpose model families qualifies, including Fable, Opus, Sonnet, Haiku, or a successor general-purpose family, provided the version designation of 6 or higher appears in the name or model identifier. For example, Claude Fable 6, Claude Opus 6, Claude Sonnet 6, or a later version such as Claude Fable 6.1 or Claude 7 would qualify, while models that retain a version designation below 6, such as Claude Fable 5.1 or Claude Opus 5, and models that do not carry an explicit version number of 6 or higher in their name or identifier, regardless of how they are described or positioned, will not qualify. A Mythos-branded release available only through Anthropic's verification or trusted-access programs, and task-specific products or restricted lines such as Claude Code, Claude Gov, or Claude Security, will not qualify on their own.\n\nA qualifying model must be launched and publicly accessible, including via open beta or open rolling waitlist signups. A closed beta or any form of private access will not suffice. The release must either be clearly defined and publicly announced by Anthropic as accessible to the general public, or otherwise be made publicly accessible and explicitly labeled on the company's official website. Labeling errors, placeholder text, or version names displayed on the website that do not correspond to a model that is actually accessible to the general public will not qualify.\n\nThe primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Anthropic, with additional verification from a consensus of credible reporting.","rules_hash":"53fd94b91d795790a4a5912d72ac569475e0f963e5d803b17b3ac3b7847ee443","observed_at":"2026-10-25T17:45:13.498152+00:00"},{"id":"polymarket:4215005","venue":"Polymarket","lab":"anthropic","event_id":"964598","group":"Claude 6","question":"Claude 6 released by December 31, 2027?","deadline_at":"2028-01-01T05:00:00+00:00","deadline_label":"By Dec 31, 2027 (ET)","bid":0.86,"ask":0.9,"midpoint":0.88,"spread":0.04,"url":"https://polymarket.com/event/claude-6-released-byptptpt/claude-6-released-by-december-31-2027","active":true,"volume":11048.78821,"volume_unit":"USD","volume_24h":null,"result":null,"closed_at":null,"opened_at":"2026-09-04T14:58:36.182065Z","rules":"This market will resolve to \"Yes\" if Anthropic's Claude 6 model is made available to the general public between market creation and the specified date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to \"No\".\n\nA qualifying model must have a name or model identifier that includes \"Claude\" and be designated as version 6 or higher, regardless of capitalization or surrounding prefixes, suffixes, dates, or descriptors. Any of Anthropic's general-purpose model families qualifies, including Fable, Opus, Sonnet, Haiku, or a successor general-purpose family, provided the version designation of 6 or higher appears in the name or model identifier. For example, Claude Fable 6, Claude Opus 6, Claude Sonnet 6, or a later version such as Claude Fable 6.1 or Claude 7 would qualify, while models that retain a version designation below 6, such as Claude Fable 5.1 or Claude Opus 5, and models that do not carry an explicit version number of 6 or higher in their name or identifier, regardless of how they are described or positioned, will not qualify. A Mythos-branded release available only through Anthropic's verification or trusted-access programs, and task-specific products or restricted lines such as Claude Code, Claude Gov, or Claude Security, will not qualify on their own.\n\nA qualifying model must be launched and publicly accessible, including via open beta or open rolling waitlist signups. A closed beta or any form of private access will not suffice. The release must either be clearly defined and publicly announced by Anthropic as accessible to the general public, or otherwise be made publicly accessible and explicitly labeled on the company's official website. Labeling errors, placeholder text, or version names displayed on the website that do not correspond to a model that is actually accessible to the general public will not qualify.\n\nThe primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Anthropic, with additional verification from a consensus of credible reporting.","rules_hash":"e1de062bccbe908ff2d9100cb712342dbe9dab9665c65c95a404591147b8e063","observed_at":"2026-10-25T17:45:13.498152+00:00"},{"id":"polymarket:5713336","venue":"Polymarket","lab":"google","event_id":"1191092","group":"Next Gemini Argon","question":"Next Gemini Argon released by December 31, 2026?","deadline_at":"2027-01-01T05:00:00+00:00","deadline_label":"By Dec 31, 2026 (ET)","bid":0.17,"ask":0.41,"midpoint":0.29,"spread":0.24,"url":"https://polymarket.com/event/next-gemini-argon-released-byptptpt-20261014/next-gemini-argon-released-by-december-31-2026","active":true,"volume":1668.8688240000001,"volume_unit":"USD","volume_24h":160.0,"result":null,"closed_at":null,"opened_at":"2026-10-14T23:01:09.506143Z","rules":"This market will resolve to \"Yes\" if Google's next Gemini Argon model is made available to the general public between market creation and the specified date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to \"No\".\n\nA qualifying model must have a name or model identifier that includes \"Argon\" and be a new Gemini Argon model release designated as newer than Gemini 4 Argon (gemini-4-argon, released October 13, 2026), regardless of capitalization, hyphenation, or surrounding prefixes, suffixes, dates, or descriptors, including decimal version increases, new whole-number generations, or newer dated builds. For example, a newer Argon model named in the same manner as Gemini 4 Argon, including a decimal increase such as a 4.1 or a new whole-number generation such as a Gemini 5 Argon, or a newer Argon release under a new, distinct model identifier, would qualify, while Gemini 4 Argon itself, including any rollout, promotion, snapshot, price change, or thinking-level setting of it, and models whose name does not include \"Argon,\" such as Gemini Pro, Gemini Flash, or Gemini Flash-Lite models, will not qualify. A qualifying release must carry a new, distinct model identifier; updates published under an unchanged identifier will not qualify.\n\nA qualifying model must be launched and publicly accessible, including via open beta or open rolling waitlist signups. A closed beta or any form of private access will not suffice. The release must either be clearly defined and publicly announced by Google as accessible to the general public, or otherwise be made publicly accessible and explicitly labeled on the company's official website. Labeling errors, placeholder text, or version names displayed on the website that do not correspond to a model that is actually accessible to the general public will not qualify.\n\nThe primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Google, with additional verification from a consensus of credible reporting.","rules_hash":"82de505329a8366e0a6622bc9650f643026157612d020cb2bb6fb04a6114c8a9","observed_at":"2026-10-25T17:45:13.498152+00:00"},{"id":"polymarket:5713337","venue":"Polymarket","lab":"google","event_id":"1191092","group":"Next Gemini Argon","question":"Next Gemini Argon released by January 31, 2027?","deadline_at":"2027-02-01T05:00:00+00:00","deadline_label":"By Jan 31, 2027 (ET)","bid":0.3,"ask":0.57,"midpoint":0.435,"spread":0.27,"url":"https://polymarket.com/event/next-gemini-argon-released-byptptpt-20261014/next-gemini-argon-released-by-january-31-2027","active":true,"volume":2557.315023,"volume_unit":"USD","volume_24h":149.0,"result":null,"closed_at":null,"opened_at":"2026-10-14T23:01:10.089007Z","rules":"This market will resolve to \"Yes\" if Google's next Gemini Argon model is made available to the general public between market creation and the specified date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to \"No\".\n\nA qualifying model must have a name or model identifier that includes \"Argon\" and be a new Gemini Argon model release designated as newer than Gemini 4 Argon (gemini-4-argon, released October 13, 2026), regardless of capitalization, hyphenation, or surrounding prefixes, suffixes, dates, or descriptors, including decimal version increases, new whole-number generations, or newer dated builds. For example, a newer Argon model named in the same manner as Gemini 4 Argon, including a decimal increase such as a 4.1 or a new whole-number generation such as a Gemini 5 Argon, or a newer Argon release under a new, distinct model identifier, would qualify, while Gemini 4 Argon itself, including any rollout, promotion, snapshot, price change, or thinking-level setting of it, and models whose name does not include \"Argon,\" such as Gemini Pro, Gemini Flash, or Gemini Flash-Lite models, will not qualify. A qualifying release must carry a new, distinct model identifier; updates published under an unchanged identifier will not qualify.\n\nA qualifying model must be launched and publicly accessible, including via open beta or open rolling waitlist signups. A closed beta or any form of private access will not suffice. The release must either be clearly defined and publicly announced by Google as accessible to the general public, or otherwise be made publicly accessible and explicitly labeled on the company's official website. Labeling errors, placeholder text, or version names displayed on the website that do not correspond to a model that is actually accessible to the general public will not qualify.\n\nThe primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Google, with additional verification from a consensus of credible reporting.","rules_hash":"17f569ea67ba035d78be6886fcead90ba04fac58a9d1b827661ad024a947761d","observed_at":"2026-10-25T17:45:13.498152+00:00"},{"id":"polymarket:2874991","venue":"Polymarket","lab":"xai","event_id":"689437","group":"Grok 5","question":"Will Grok 5 be released by December 31, 2026?","deadline_at":"2027-01-01T05:00:00+00:00","deadline_label":"By Dec 31, 2026 (ET)","bid":0.36,"ask":0.43,"midpoint":0.395,"spread":0.07,"url":"https://polymarket.com/event/grok-5-released-byptptpt-20260710195520919/will-grok-5-be-released-by-december-31-2026-20260710195520922-353-996","active":true,"volume":8786.012254000001,"volume_unit":"USD","volume_24h":254.467805,"result":null,"closed_at":null,"opened_at":"2026-07-10T22:20:31.487519Z","rules":"This market will resolve to \"Yes\" if xAI's Grok 5 model is made available to the general public by the specified date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to \"No.\"\n\nGrok 5 refers to a product explicitly named Grok 5, or a model that is clearly recognized as xAI’s next flagship generation succeeding Grok 4. Models released under the Grok 4 generation, including Grok 4.6, Grok 4.7, or similar variants, will not qualify.\n\nQualifying releases of task-specialized models or cost-efficiency variants will not count unless they are explicitly branded as Grok 5 or otherwise clearly announced by xAI as its next flagship Grok generation.\n\nFor this market to resolve to \"Yes,\" a qualifying model must be launched and publicly accessible, including via open beta or open rolling waitlist signups. A closed beta or any form of private access will not suffice.\n\nThe release must be either clearly defined and publicly announced by xAI as being accessible to the general public or otherwise made publicly accessible and explicitly labeled within the company’s official website. Labeling errors, placeholder text, or version names displayed on the website that do not correspond to a model that is actually accessible to the general public will not qualify.\n\nThe primary resolution source for this market will be official information from xAI, with additional verification from a consensus of credible reporting.","rules_hash":"b9d8b9a1ce8d0b879b95edcfb7a8f0ab5edc57370bb3219fbb3d365ad561cdde","observed_at":"2026-10-25T17:45:13.498152+00:00"},{"id":"polymarket:3670573","venue":"Polymarket","lab":"xai","event_id":"689437","group":"Grok 5","question":"Will Grok 5 be released by October 31, 2026?","deadline_at":"2026-11-01T04:00:00+00:00","deadline_label":"By Oct 31, 2026 (ET)","bid":0.003,"ask":0.006,"midpoint":0.0045,"spread":0.003,"url":"https://polymarket.com/event/grok-5-released-byptptpt-20260710195520919/will-grok-5-be-released-by-october-31-2026","active":true,"volume":5130.309811,"volume_unit":"USD","volume_24h":35.0,"result":null,"closed_at":null,"opened_at":"2026-08-17T16:08:14.840814Z","rules":"This market will resolve to \"Yes\" if xAI's Grok 5 model is made available to the general public by the specified date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to \"No.\"\n\nGrok 5 refers to a product explicitly named Grok 5, or a model that is clearly recognized as xAI’s next flagship generation succeeding Grok 4. Models released under the Grok 4 generation, including Grok 4.6, Grok 4.7, or similar variants, will not qualify.\n\nQualifying releases of task-specialized models or cost-efficiency variants will not count unless they are explicitly branded as Grok 5 or otherwise clearly announced by xAI as its next flagship Grok generation.\n\nFor this market to resolve to \"Yes,\" a qualifying model must be launched and publicly accessible, including via open beta or open rolling waitlist signups. A closed beta or any form of private access will not suffice.\n\nThe release must be either clearly defined and publicly announced by xAI as being accessible to the general public or otherwise made publicly accessible and explicitly labeled within the company’s official website. Labeling errors, placeholder text, or version names displayed on the website that do not correspond to a model that is actually accessible to the general public will not qualify.\n\nThe primary resolution source for this market will be official information from xAI, with additional verification from a consensus of credible reporting.","rules_hash":"ea9f174788eb796bd1b6266d3c4040da34435af0b57999a5779e2dc43e6e6436","observed_at":"2026-10-25T17:45:13.498152+00:00"},{"id":"polymarket:3670574","venue":"Polymarket","lab":"xai","event_id":"689437","group":"Grok 5","question":"Will Grok 5 be released by November 30, 2026?","deadline_at":"2026-12-01T05:00:00+00:00","deadline_label":"By Nov 30, 2026 (ET)","bid":0.11,"ask":0.15,"midpoint":0.13,"spread":0.04,"url":"https://polymarket.com/event/grok-5-released-byptptpt-20260710195520919/will-grok-5-be-released-by-november-30-2026","active":true,"volume":2297.7867909999995,"volume_unit":"USD","volume_24h":null,"result":null,"closed_at":null,"opened_at":"2026-08-17T16:08:51.241335Z","rules":"This market will resolve to \"Yes\" if xAI's Grok 5 model is made available to the general public by the specified date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to \"No.\"\n\nGrok 5 refers to a product explicitly named Grok 5, or a model that is clearly recognized as xAI’s next flagship generation succeeding Grok 4. Models released under the Grok 4 generation, including Grok 4.6, Grok 4.7, or similar variants, will not qualify.\n\nQualifying releases of task-specialized models or cost-efficiency variants will not count unless they are explicitly branded as Grok 5 or otherwise clearly announced by xAI as its next flagship Grok generation.\n\nFor this market to resolve to \"Yes,\" a qualifying model must be launched and publicly accessible, including via open beta or open rolling waitlist signups. A closed beta or any form of private access will not suffice.\n\nThe release must be either clearly defined and publicly announced by xAI as being accessible to the general public or otherwise made publicly accessible and explicitly labeled within the company’s official website. Labeling errors, placeholder text, or version names displayed on the website that do not correspond to a model that is actually accessible to the general public will not qualify.\n\nThe primary resolution source for this market will be official information from xAI, with additional verification from a consensus of credible reporting.","rules_hash":"4a2765d1d28133c15b10d22551944429b903b9b339e523a73a45252477e593e0","observed_at":"2026-10-25T17:45:13.498152+00:00"},{"id":"polymarket:3592203","venue":"Polymarket","lab":"zhipuai","event_id":"850752","group":"Next Z.ai GLM (5.4+)","question":"Next Z.ai GLM (5.4+) released by October 31, 2026?","deadline_at":"2026-11-01T04:00:00+00:00","deadline_label":"By Oct 31, 2026 (ET)","bid":0.12,"ask":0.16,"midpoint":0.14,"spread":0.04,"url":"https://polymarket.com/event/next-zptai-glm-5pt4-released-byptptpt/next-zptai-glm-5pt4-released-by-october-31-2026-763","active":true,"volume":12572.369442999998,"volume_unit":"USD","volume_24h":282.739725,"result":null,"closed_at":null,"opened_at":"2026-08-14T21:49:25.686666Z","rules":"This market will resolve to \"Yes\" if Z.ai's next GLM model (5.4+) is made available to the general public between market creation and the specified date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to \"No\".\n\nA qualifying model must be part of Z.ai's core GLM series, have a name or model identifier that includes \"GLM,\" and be designated as a version greater than 5.3, regardless of capitalization or surrounding prefixes, suffixes, dates, or descriptors. For example, a version greater than 5.3 named in the same manner as GLM-5.2 or GLM-5.3 would qualify, including versions that skip numbers, such as GLM-5.5 or GLM-6, while models with a version designation of 5.3 or below, or derivative models not positioned as the next flagship GLM release, such as GLM-5.3-Turbo, will not qualify. Staged rollouts of a model already publicly accessible before market creation, such as the open-weight or API release of GLM-5.3, will not qualify.\n\nA qualifying model must be launched and publicly accessible, including via open beta or open rolling waitlist signups. A closed beta or any form of private access will not suffice. The release must either be clearly defined and publicly announced by Z.ai as accessible to the general public, or otherwise be made publicly accessible and explicitly labeled on the company's official website. Labeling errors, placeholder text, or version names displayed on the website that do not correspond to a model that is actually accessible to the general public will not qualify.\n\nThe primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Z.ai, with additional verification from a consensus of credible reporting.","rules_hash":"bfebb0c8f0df8bd4c9d6ba21c3008a9a01f664b5ff7d397e4810fe0eb4f6bfcb","observed_at":"2026-10-25T17:45:13.498152+00:00"},{"id":"polymarket:4895504","venue":"Polymarket","lab":"anthropic","event_id":"1071679","group":"Next Claude Opus (5.6+)","question":"Next Claude Opus (5.6+) released by November 30, 2026?","deadline_at":"2026-12-01T05:00:00+00:00","deadline_label":"By Nov 30, 2026 (ET)","bid":0.49,"ask":0.67,"midpoint":0.58,"spread":0.18,"url":"https://polymarket.com/event/next-claude-opus-released-byptptpt-20260923144500000/next-claude-opus-released-by-november-30-2026","active":true,"volume":7531.177515,"volume_unit":"USD","volume_24h":211.806167,"result":null,"closed_at":null,"opened_at":"2026-09-23T23:54:43.261354Z","rules":"This market will resolve to \"Yes\" if Anthropic's next Claude Opus model is made available to the general public between market creation and the specified date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to \"No\".\n\nA qualifying model must have a name or model identifier that includes \"Opus\" and be designated as version 5.6 or higher, regardless of capitalization or surrounding prefixes, suffixes, dates, or descriptors. For example, a version 5.6 or higher named in the same manner as Claude Opus 5 or Claude Opus 5.5 would qualify, including a new whole-number generation such as Claude Opus 6, while models whose name does not include \"Opus\" or which retain a version designation below 5.6, such as Claude Opus 5.5, including any rollout, promotion, or snapshot of it, will not qualify.\n\nA qualifying model must be launched and publicly accessible, including via open beta or open rolling waitlist signups. A closed beta or any form of private access will not suffice. The release must either be clearly defined and publicly announced by Anthropic as accessible to the general public, or otherwise be made publicly accessible and explicitly labeled on the company's official website. Labeling errors, placeholder text, or version names displayed on the website that do not correspond to a model that is actually accessible to the general public will not qualify.\n\nThe primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Anthropic, with additional verification from a consensus of credible reporting.","rules_hash":"0312b95df77f691e24cc72a07292acbbc181b3be93375b2b8edbeca910001373","observed_at":"2026-10-25T17:45:13.498152+00:00"},{"id":"polymarket:4895505","venue":"Polymarket","lab":"anthropic","event_id":"1071679","group":"Next Claude Opus (5.6+)","question":"Next Claude Opus (5.6+) released by December 31, 2026?","deadline_at":"2027-01-01T05:00:00+00:00","deadline_label":"By Dec 31, 2026 (ET)","bid":0.89,"ask":0.94,"midpoint":0.915,"spread":0.05,"url":"https://polymarket.com/event/next-claude-opus-released-byptptpt-20260923144500000/next-claude-opus-released-by-december-31-2026","active":true,"volume":2457.989958,"volume_unit":"USD","volume_24h":null,"result":null,"closed_at":null,"opened_at":"2026-09-23T23:54:43.676988Z","rules":"This market will resolve to \"Yes\" if Anthropic's next Claude Opus model is made available to the general public between market creation and the specified date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to \"No\".\n\nA qualifying model must have a name or model identifier that includes \"Opus\" and be designated as version 5.6 or higher, regardless of capitalization or surrounding prefixes, suffixes, dates, or descriptors. For example, a version 5.6 or higher named in the same manner as Claude Opus 5 or Claude Opus 5.5 would qualify, including a new whole-number generation such as Claude Opus 6, while models whose name does not include \"Opus\" or which retain a version designation below 5.6, such as Claude Opus 5.5, including any rollout, promotion, or snapshot of it, will not qualify.\n\nA qualifying model must be launched and publicly accessible, including via open beta or open rolling waitlist signups. A closed beta or any form of private access will not suffice. The release must either be clearly defined and publicly announced by Anthropic as accessible to the general public, or otherwise be made publicly accessible and explicitly labeled on the company's official website. Labeling errors, placeholder text, or version names displayed on the website that do not correspond to a model that is actually accessible to the general public will not qualify.\n\nThe primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Anthropic, with additional verification from a consensus of credible reporting.","rules_hash":"6498bf7a112edbb303e47a42bfb113cdd3276ac2167d630d4830ada1d0db945d","observed_at":"2026-10-25T17:45:13.498152+00:00"},{"id":"polymarket:5130976","venue":"Polymarket","lab":"anthropic","event_id":"1071679","group":"Next Claude Opus (5.6+)","question":"Next Claude Opus (5.6+) released by October 31, 2026?","deadline_at":"2026-11-01T04:00:00+00:00","deadline_label":"By Oct 31, 2026 (ET)","bid":0.04,"ask":0.06,"midpoint":0.05,"spread":0.02,"url":"https://polymarket.com/event/next-claude-opus-released-byptptpt-20260923144500000/next-claude-opus-released-by-october-31-2026","active":true,"volume":2337.8509599999998,"volume_unit":"USD","volume_24h":20.826667,"result":null,"closed_at":null,"opened_at":"2026-09-29T16:28:04.142278Z","rules":"This market will resolve to \"Yes\" if Anthropic's next Claude Opus model is made available to the general public between market creation and the specified date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to \"No\".\n\nA qualifying model must have a name or model identifier that includes \"Opus\" and be designated as version 5.6 or higher, regardless of capitalization or surrounding prefixes, suffixes, dates, or descriptors. For example, a version 5.6 or higher named in the same manner as Claude Opus 5 or Claude Opus 5.5 would qualify, including a new whole-number generation such as Claude Opus 6, while models whose name does not include \"Opus\" or which retain a version designation below 5.6, such as Claude Opus 5.5, including any rollout, promotion, or snapshot of it, will not qualify.\n\nA qualifying model must be launched and publicly accessible, including via open beta or open rolling waitlist signups. A closed beta or any form of private access will not suffice. The release must either be clearly defined and publicly announced by Anthropic as accessible to the general public, or otherwise be made publicly accessible and explicitly labeled on the company's official website. Labeling errors, placeholder text, or version names displayed on the website that do not correspond to a model that is actually accessible to the general public will not qualify.\n\nThe primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Anthropic, with additional verification from a consensus of credible reporting.","rules_hash":"52344adee2f1a206271bd9f4e67ba785e6551599966196e20dec7602267498a4","observed_at":"2026-10-25T17:45:13.498152+00:00"},{"id":"polymarket:3667937","venue":"Polymarket","lab":"google","event_id":"549546","group":"Next Google Gemini Pro Model","question":"Will the next Google Gemini Pro model be released by October 31, 2026?","deadline_at":"2026-11-01T04:00:00+00:00","deadline_label":"By Oct 31, 2026 (ET)","bid":0.013,"ask":0.029,"midpoint":0.021,"spread":0.016,"url":"https://polymarket.com/event/next-google-gemini-pro-model-released-byptptpt/will-the-next-google-gemini-pro-model-be-released-by-october-31-2026","active":true,"volume":181357.138136,"volume_unit":"USD","volume_24h":216.54999999999998,"result":null,"closed_at":null,"opened_at":"2026-08-17T13:16:49.244226Z","rules":"This market will resolve to \"Yes\" if Google's next Gemini Pro model is made available to the general public between market creation and the specified date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.\n\nAny Gemini model released after market creation and labeled as \"Pro\" may qualify (e.g., gemini-3.2-pro, gemini-3.5-pro, or gemini-4.0-pro-preview). Gemini models labeled only as Flash, Flash-Lite, or another non-Pro variant will not qualify.\n\nProducts labeled as a GA promotion of an already-existing Preview model (e.g., gemini-3.1-pro-ga) may qualify\n\nA qualifying model must be launched and publicly accessible, including via open beta or open rolling waitlist signups. A closed beta or any form of private access will not suffice. The release must be either clearly defined and publicly announced by Google as being accessible to the general public or otherwise made publicly accessible and explicitly labeled within the company's official website. Labeling errors, placeholder text, or version names displayed on the website that do not correspond to a model that is actually accessible to the general public will not qualify.\n\nThe primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Google, with additional verification from a consensus of credible reporting.","rules_hash":"ce1d72d8880ad2738672b8de14901d178d8d93b7d5eb292e676a12712f3fe38c","observed_at":"2026-10-25T17:45:13.498152+00:00"},{"id":"polymarket:5204931","venue":"Polymarket","lab":"google","event_id":"549546","group":"Next Google Gemini Pro Model","question":"Will the next Google Gemini Pro model be released by November 30, 2026?","deadline_at":"2026-12-01T05:00:00+00:00","deadline_label":"By Nov 30, 2026 (ET)","bid":0.06,"ask":0.1,"midpoint":0.08,"spread":0.04,"url":"https://polymarket.com/event/next-google-gemini-pro-model-released-byptptpt/will-the-next-google-gemini-pro-model-be-released-by-november-30-2026","active":true,"volume":10203.155361000001,"volume_unit":"USD","volume_24h":null,"result":null,"closed_at":null,"opened_at":"2026-10-02T14:20:04.372467Z","rules":"This market will resolve to \"Yes\" if Google's next Gemini Pro model is made available to the general public between market creation and the specified date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.\n\nAny Gemini model released after market creation and labeled as \"Pro\" may qualify (e.g., gemini-3.2-pro, gemini-3.5-pro, or gemini-4.0-pro-preview). Gemini models labeled only as Flash, Flash-Lite, or another non-Pro variant will not qualify.\n\nProducts labeled as a GA promotion of an already-existing Preview model (e.g., gemini-3.1-pro-ga) may qualify\n\nA qualifying model must be launched and publicly accessible, including via open beta or open rolling waitlist signups. A closed beta or any form of private access will not suffice. The release must be either clearly defined and publicly announced by Google as being accessible to the general public or otherwise made publicly accessible and explicitly labeled within the company's official website. Labeling errors, placeholder text, or version names displayed on the website that do not correspond to a model that is actually accessible to the general public will not qualify.\n\nThe primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Google, with additional verification from a consensus of credible reporting.","rules_hash":"804622f988bf4e9bda6f5b99a264da6eb9f3a5ff4be7e3b580b01467a3257b4c","observed_at":"2026-10-25T17:45:13.498152+00:00"},{"id":"polymarket:5204932","venue":"Polymarket","lab":"google","event_id":"549546","group":"Next Google Gemini Pro Model","question":"Will the next Google Gemini Pro model be released by December 31, 2026?","deadline_at":"2027-01-01T05:00:00+00:00","deadline_label":"By Dec 31, 2026 (ET)","bid":0.13,"ask":0.26,"midpoint":0.195,"spread":0.13,"url":"https://polymarket.com/event/next-google-gemini-pro-model-released-byptptpt/will-the-next-google-gemini-pro-model-be-released-by-december-31-2026","active":true,"volume":8562.750196,"volume_unit":"USD","volume_24h":5.641905,"result":null,"closed_at":null,"opened_at":"2026-10-02T14:20:04.385468Z","rules":"This market will resolve to \"Yes\" if Google's next Gemini Pro model is made available to the general public between market creation and the specified date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.\n\nAny Gemini model released after market creation and labeled as \"Pro\" may qualify (e.g., gemini-3.2-pro, gemini-3.5-pro, or gemini-4.0-pro-preview). Gemini models labeled only as Flash, Flash-Lite, or another non-Pro variant will not qualify.\n\nProducts labeled as a GA promotion of an already-existing Preview model (e.g., gemini-3.1-pro-ga) may qualify\n\nA qualifying model must be launched and publicly accessible, including via open beta or open rolling waitlist signups. A closed beta or any form of private access will not suffice. The release must be either clearly defined and publicly announced by Google as being accessible to the general public or otherwise made publicly accessible and explicitly labeled within the company's official website. Labeling errors, placeholder text, or version names displayed on the website that do not correspond to a model that is actually accessible to the general public will not qualify.\n\nThe primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Google, with additional verification from a consensus of credible reporting.","rules_hash":"3573dec08302aea410fa52ec2ce1e584376562656cf7e0c036eefe6482f70114","observed_at":"2026-10-25T17:45:13.498152+00:00"},{"id":"polymarket:3592239","venue":"Polymarket","lab":"alibaba","event_id":"850782","group":"Next Alibaba Qwen Max (3.9+)","question":"Next Alibaba Qwen Max (3.9+) released by October 31, 2026?","deadline_at":"2026-11-01T04:00:00+00:00","deadline_label":"By Oct 31, 2026 (ET)","bid":0.01,"ask":0.155,"midpoint":0.0825,"spread":0.145,"url":"https://polymarket.com/event/next-alibaba-qwen-max-3pt9-released-byptptpt/next-alibaba-qwen-max-3pt9-released-by-october-31-2026","active":true,"volume":9547.238001999998,"volume_unit":"USD","volume_24h":196.53,"result":null,"closed_at":null,"opened_at":"2026-08-14T21:53:24.032546Z","rules":"This market will resolve to \"Yes\" if Alibaba's next Qwen Max model (3.9+) is made available to the general public between market creation and the specified date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to \"No\".\n\nA qualifying model must have a name or model identifier that includes \"Qwen\" and \"Max,\" be the flagship model of Alibaba's core Qwen Max tier, and be designated as version 3.9 or higher, regardless of capitalization or surrounding prefixes, suffixes, dates, or descriptors. For example, a version 3.9 or higher named in the same manner as Qwen3.7-Max or Qwen3.8-Max-Preview would qualify, including a new whole-number generation such as Qwen4-Max, while models whose name does not include \"Max\" or which retain a version designation below 3.9, such as Qwen3.8-Max, including its stable, open-weight, or snapshot re-releases, or Qwen3.8-Max-Preview, will not qualify. Derivative lines such as VL, Coder, Omni, or other specialized variants, such as qwen-vl-max, will not qualify.\n\nA qualifying model must be launched and publicly accessible, including via open beta or open rolling waitlist signups. A closed beta or any form of private access will not suffice. The release must either be clearly defined and publicly announced by Alibaba as accessible to the general public, or otherwise be made publicly accessible and explicitly labeled on the company's official website. Labeling errors, placeholder text, or version names displayed on the website that do not correspond to a model that is actually accessible to the general public will not qualify.\n\nThe primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Alibaba, with additional verification from a consensus of credible reporting.","rules_hash":"3d0548a954467a2e25c98043811c5d36217a73a6bd0967a1e7eee4f057d5f27e","observed_at":"2026-10-25T17:45:13.498152+00:00"},{"id":"polymarket:4840147","venue":"Polymarket","lab":"xai","event_id":"1064297","group":"Next Grok Model (4.8+)","question":"Next Grok Model (4.8+) released by October 31, 2026?","deadline_at":"2026-11-01T04:00:00+00:00","deadline_label":"By Oct 31, 2026 (ET)","bid":0.032,"ask":0.057,"midpoint":0.0445,"spread":0.025,"url":"https://polymarket.com/event/next-grok-model-4pt8-released-by/next-grok-model-4pt8-released-by-october-31-2026","active":true,"volume":4859.558428,"volume_unit":"USD","volume_24h":null,"result":null,"closed_at":null,"opened_at":"2026-09-22T14:43:59.690153Z","rules":"This market will resolve to \"Yes\" if SpaceXAI's next Grok model (4.8+) is made available to the general public between market creation and the specified date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to \"No\".\n\nA qualifying model must have a name or model identifier that includes \"Grok\" and be designated as version 4.8 or higher, regardless of capitalization or surrounding prefixes, suffixes, dates, or descriptors. For example, a version 4.8 or higher named in the same manner as Grok 4.5, Grok 4.6, or Grok 4.7 would qualify, including reasoning, Fast, Heavy, or similar variants carrying a 4.8 or higher designation and a new whole-number generation such as Grok 5, while models whose name does not include \"Grok\" or which retain a version designation below 4.8, such as Grok 4.7 (released September 21, 2026), including any rollout, promotion, or snapshot of it, will not qualify. Separately numbered product lines that do not carry the core Grok version designation, such as Grok Code Fast or Grok Imagine, will not qualify, and version numbers of the Grok app, website, or other products that do not correspond to a new underlying model will not qualify.\n\nA qualifying model must be launched and publicly accessible, including via open beta or open rolling waitlist signups. A closed beta or any form of private access will not suffice. The release must either be clearly defined and publicly announced by SpaceXAI as accessible to the general public, or otherwise be made publicly accessible and explicitly labeled on the company's official website. Labeling errors, placeholder text, or version names displayed on the website that do not correspond to a model that is actually accessible to the general public will not qualify.\n\nThe primary resolution source for this market will be official information from SpaceXAI, with additional verification from a consensus of credible reporting.","rules_hash":"48350a627ace15cb68cc050ea5b010661d2de30712d3c012c921c0b5e9fa0c15","observed_at":"2026-10-25T17:45:13.498152+00:00"},{"id":"polymarket:4840148","venue":"Polymarket","lab":"xai","event_id":"1064297","group":"Next Grok Model (4.8+)","question":"Next Grok Model (4.8+) released by November 30, 2026?","deadline_at":"2026-12-01T05:00:00+00:00","deadline_label":"By Nov 30, 2026 (ET)","bid":0.64,"ask":0.86,"midpoint":0.75,"spread":0.22,"url":"https://polymarket.com/event/next-grok-model-4pt8-released-by/next-grok-model-4pt8-released-by-november-30-2026","active":true,"volume":2975.6871819999997,"volume_unit":"USD","volume_24h":181.526758,"result":null,"closed_at":null,"opened_at":"2026-09-22T14:44:00.069734Z","rules":"This market will resolve to \"Yes\" if SpaceXAI's next Grok model (4.8+) is made available to the general public between market creation and the specified date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to \"No\".\n\nA qualifying model must have a name or model identifier that includes \"Grok\" and be designated as version 4.8 or higher, regardless of capitalization or surrounding prefixes, suffixes, dates, or descriptors. For example, a version 4.8 or higher named in the same manner as Grok 4.5, Grok 4.6, or Grok 4.7 would qualify, including reasoning, Fast, Heavy, or similar variants carrying a 4.8 or higher designation and a new whole-number generation such as Grok 5, while models whose name does not include \"Grok\" or which retain a version designation below 4.8, such as Grok 4.7 (released September 21, 2026), including any rollout, promotion, or snapshot of it, will not qualify. Separately numbered product lines that do not carry the core Grok version designation, such as Grok Code Fast or Grok Imagine, will not qualify, and version numbers of the Grok app, website, or other products that do not correspond to a new underlying model will not qualify.\n\nA qualifying model must be launched and publicly accessible, including via open beta or open rolling waitlist signups. A closed beta or any form of private access will not suffice. The release must either be clearly defined and publicly announced by SpaceXAI as accessible to the general public, or otherwise be made publicly accessible and explicitly labeled on the company's official website. Labeling errors, placeholder text, or version names displayed on the website that do not correspond to a model that is actually accessible to the general public will not qualify.\n\nThe primary resolution source for this market will be official information from SpaceXAI, with additional verification from a consensus of credible reporting.","rules_hash":"5e4511b2fcdcb2a0d6f91b665d2cdb948379e03290369bc0f58dc8711c97dde8","observed_at":"2026-10-25T17:45:13.498152+00:00"},{"id":"polymarket:4046793","venue":"Polymarket","lab":"alibaba","event_id":"944745","group":"Next Qwen Flash (3.9+)","question":"Next Qwen Flash (3.9+) released by October 31, 2026?","deadline_at":"2026-11-01T04:00:00+00:00","deadline_label":"By Oct 31, 2026 (ET)","bid":0.056,"ask":0.661,"midpoint":0.3585,"spread":0.605,"url":"https://polymarket.com/event/next-qwen-flash-3pt9-released-byptptpt/next-qwen-flash-3pt9-released-by-october-31-2026","active":true,"volume":1899.461048,"volume_unit":"USD","volume_24h":null,"result":null,"closed_at":null,"opened_at":"2026-08-31T23:25:30.424717Z","rules":"This market will resolve to \"Yes\" if Alibaba's next Qwen Flash model (3.9+) is made available to the general public between market creation and the specified date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to \"No\".\n\nA qualifying model must have a name or model identifier that includes \"Qwen\" and \"Flash,\" be the flagship model of Alibaba's core Qwen Flash tier, and be designated as version 3.9 or higher, regardless of capitalization or surrounding prefixes, suffixes, dates, or descriptors. For example, a version 3.9 or higher named in the same manner as Qwen3.7-Flash or Qwen3.8-Flash would qualify, including a new whole-number generation such as Qwen4-Flash, while models whose name does not include \"Flash\" or which retain a version designation below 3.9, such as Qwen3.8-Flash, Qwen3.8-Plus, or Qwen3.9-Max, will not qualify. Derivative lines such as VL, Coder, Omni, or other specialized variants, such as qwen3-coder-flash, will not qualify.\n\nA qualifying model must be launched and publicly accessible, including via open beta or open rolling waitlist signups. A closed beta or any form of private access will not suffice. The release must either be clearly defined and publicly announced by Alibaba as accessible to the general public, or otherwise be made publicly accessible and explicitly labeled on the company's official website. Labeling errors, placeholder text, or version names displayed on the website that do not correspond to a model that is actually accessible to the general public will not qualify.\n\nThe primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Alibaba, with additional verification from a consensus of credible reporting.","rules_hash":"c5f35dbcd8886bfa1c47c86453e73b5f77caebc5d9485fbb9ef8d8f4c9032830","observed_at":"2026-10-25T17:45:13.498152+00:00"},{"id":"polymarket:4046794","venue":"Polymarket","lab":"alibaba","event_id":"944745","group":"Next Qwen Flash (3.9+)","question":"Next Qwen Flash (3.9+) released by December 31, 2026?","deadline_at":"2027-01-01T05:00:00+00:00","deadline_label":"By Dec 31, 2026 (ET)","bid":0.51,"ask":0.89,"midpoint":0.7,"spread":0.38,"url":"https://polymarket.com/event/next-qwen-flash-3pt9-released-byptptpt/next-qwen-flash-3pt9-released-by-december-31-2026","active":true,"volume":1068.354504,"volume_unit":"USD","volume_24h":168.61904900000002,"result":null,"closed_at":null,"opened_at":"2026-08-31T23:25:30.824845Z","rules":"This market will resolve to \"Yes\" if Alibaba's next Qwen Flash model (3.9+) is made available to the general public between market creation and the specified date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to \"No\".\n\nA qualifying model must have a name or model identifier that includes \"Qwen\" and \"Flash,\" be the flagship model of Alibaba's core Qwen Flash tier, and be designated as version 3.9 or higher, regardless of capitalization or surrounding prefixes, suffixes, dates, or descriptors. For example, a version 3.9 or higher named in the same manner as Qwen3.7-Flash or Qwen3.8-Flash would qualify, including a new whole-number generation such as Qwen4-Flash, while models whose name does not include \"Flash\" or which retain a version designation below 3.9, such as Qwen3.8-Flash, Qwen3.8-Plus, or Qwen3.9-Max, will not qualify. Derivative lines such as VL, Coder, Omni, or other specialized variants, such as qwen3-coder-flash, will not qualify.\n\nA qualifying model must be launched and publicly accessible, including via open beta or open rolling waitlist signups. A closed beta or any form of private access will not suffice. The release must either be clearly defined and publicly announced by Alibaba as accessible to the general public, or otherwise be made publicly accessible and explicitly labeled on the company's official website. Labeling errors, placeholder text, or version names displayed on the website that do not correspond to a model that is actually accessible to the general public will not qualify.\n\nThe primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Alibaba, with additional verification from a consensus of credible reporting.","rules_hash":"4302a992afe886f8e9528235754d30853697e69f4d65cb72c542138ce3311b90","observed_at":"2026-10-25T17:45:13.498152+00:00"},{"id":"polymarket:5126095","venue":"Polymarket","lab":"anthropic","event_id":"1103837","group":"Next Claude Sonnet (5.6+)","question":"Next Claude Sonnet (5.6+) released by December 31, 2026?","deadline_at":"2027-01-01T05:00:00+00:00","deadline_label":"By Dec 31, 2026 (ET)","bid":0.31,"ask":0.33,"midpoint":0.32,"spread":0.02,"url":"https://polymarket.com/event/next-claude-sonnet-5pt6-released-byptptpt-20260929100500000/next-claude-sonnet-5pt6-released-by-december-31-2026","active":true,"volume":1298.258105,"volume_unit":"USD","volume_24h":160.0,"result":null,"closed_at":null,"opened_at":"2026-09-29T15:07:53.672733Z","rules":"This market will resolve to \"Yes\" if Anthropic's next Claude Sonnet model (5.6+) is made available to the general public between market creation and the specified date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to \"No\".\n\nA qualifying model must have a name or model identifier that includes \"Sonnet\" and be designated as version 5.6 or higher, regardless of capitalization or surrounding prefixes, suffixes, dates, or descriptors. For example, a version 5.6 or higher named in the same manner as Claude Sonnet 5 or Claude Sonnet 5.5 would qualify, including a new whole-number generation such as Claude Sonnet 6, while models whose name does not include \"Sonnet\" or which retain a version designation below 5.6, such as Claude Sonnet 5.5, including any rollout, promotion, or snapshot of it, will not qualify.\n\nA qualifying model must be launched and publicly accessible, including via open beta or open rolling waitlist signups. A closed beta or any form of private access will not suffice. The release must either be clearly defined and publicly announced by Anthropic as accessible to the general public, or otherwise be made publicly accessible and explicitly labeled on the company's official website. Labeling errors, placeholder text, or version names displayed on the website that do not correspond to a model that is actually accessible to the general public will not qualify.\n\nThe primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Anthropic, with additional verification from a consensus of credible reporting.","rules_hash":"26cc091b7e65364b2aca939afb27f7ed1ab80649c99c13d7c5a0ffed5c4837b2","observed_at":"2026-10-25T17:45:13.498152+00:00"},{"id":"polymarket:5126096","venue":"Polymarket","lab":"anthropic","event_id":"1103837","group":"Next Claude Sonnet (5.6+)","question":"Next Claude Sonnet (5.6+) released by January 31, 2027?","deadline_at":"2027-02-01T05:00:00+00:00","deadline_label":"By Jan 31, 2027 (ET)","bid":0.29,"ask":0.57,"midpoint":0.43,"spread":0.28,"url":"https://polymarket.com/event/next-claude-sonnet-5pt6-released-byptptpt-20260929100500000/next-claude-sonnet-5pt6-released-by-january-31-2027","active":true,"volume":1053.237893,"volume_unit":"USD","volume_24h":null,"result":null,"closed_at":null,"opened_at":"2026-09-29T15:07:54.051604Z","rules":"This market will resolve to \"Yes\" if Anthropic's next Claude Sonnet model (5.6+) is made available to the general public between market creation and the specified date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to \"No\".\n\nA qualifying model must have a name or model identifier that includes \"Sonnet\" and be designated as version 5.6 or higher, regardless of capitalization or surrounding prefixes, suffixes, dates, or descriptors. For example, a version 5.6 or higher named in the same manner as Claude Sonnet 5 or Claude Sonnet 5.5 would qualify, including a new whole-number generation such as Claude Sonnet 6, while models whose name does not include \"Sonnet\" or which retain a version designation below 5.6, such as Claude Sonnet 5.5, including any rollout, promotion, or snapshot of it, will not qualify.\n\nA qualifying model must be launched and publicly accessible, including via open beta or open rolling waitlist signups. A closed beta or any form of private access will not suffice. The release must either be clearly defined and publicly announced by Anthropic as accessible to the general public, or otherwise be made publicly accessible and explicitly labeled on the company's official website. Labeling errors, placeholder text, or version names displayed on the website that do not correspond to a model that is actually accessible to the general public will not qualify.\n\nThe primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Anthropic, with additional verification from a consensus of credible reporting.","rules_hash":"9c62757d9247061be123da4d6ee59c8faa4c1082d10f4e709ce14e24e765fa71","observed_at":"2026-10-25T17:45:13.498152+00:00"},{"id":"polymarket:4178237","venue":"Polymarket","lab":"google","event_id":"956714","group":"Next Gemini Flash Model (3.9+)","question":"Next Gemini Flash Model (3.9+) released by October 31, 2026?","deadline_at":"2026-11-01T04:00:00+00:00","deadline_label":"By Oct 31, 2026 (ET)","bid":0.024,"ask":0.07,"midpoint":0.047,"spread":0.046,"url":"https://polymarket.com/event/next-gemini-flash-model-3pt9-released-byptptpt/next-gemini-flash-model-3pt9-released-by-october-31-2026","active":true,"volume":4644.489607999999,"volume_unit":"USD","volume_24h":14.28,"result":null,"closed_at":null,"opened_at":"2026-09-03T00:00:01.111464Z","rules":"This market will resolve to \"Yes\" if Google's next Gemini Flash model (3.9+) is made available to the general public between market creation and the specified date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to \"No\".\n\nA qualifying model must have a name or model identifier that includes \"Gemini,\" be labeled \"Flash\" rather than \"Flash-Lite,\" be positioned as Google's core general-purpose Gemini Flash model, and be designated as version 3.9 or higher, regardless of capitalization or surrounding prefixes, suffixes, dates, or descriptors. For example, a version 3.9 or higher named in the same manner as Gemini 3.7 Flash or Gemini 3.8 Flash would qualify, including a new whole-number generation such as Gemini 4 Flash, while models labeled \"Flash-Lite\" or which retain a version designation below 3.9, such as Gemini 3.8 Flash (released September 2, 2026), including any rollout, promotion, or snapshot of it, will not qualify. Specialized modality or security variants, such as Gemini Flash Image, Gemini Flash-Lite Image, Gemini Omni Flash, Gemini Flash Cyber, or Flash TTS or Live models, will not qualify.\n\nA qualifying model must be launched and publicly accessible, including via open beta or open rolling waitlist signups. A closed beta or any form of private access will not suffice. The release must either be clearly defined and publicly announced by Google as accessible to the general public, or otherwise be made publicly accessible and explicitly labeled on the company's official website. Labeling errors, placeholder text, or version names displayed on the website that do not correspond to a model that is actually accessible to the general public will not qualify.\n\nThe primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Google, with additional verification from a consensus of credible reporting.","rules_hash":"d96708fec7a83cf259d4a5c66e3fcf92cad506f72d684fc6d0b2b449259f214f","observed_at":"2026-10-25T17:45:13.498152+00:00"},{"id":"polymarket:4178238","venue":"Polymarket","lab":"google","event_id":"956714","group":"Next Gemini Flash Model (3.9+)","question":"Next Gemini Flash Model (3.9+) released by November 30, 2026?","deadline_at":"2026-12-01T05:00:00+00:00","deadline_label":"By Nov 30, 2026 (ET)","bid":0.7,"ask":0.73,"midpoint":0.715,"spread":0.03,"url":"https://polymarket.com/event/next-gemini-flash-model-3pt9-released-byptptpt/next-gemini-flash-model-3pt9-released-by-november-30-2026","active":true,"volume":6449.578734,"volume_unit":"USD","volume_24h":108.0,"result":null,"closed_at":null,"opened_at":"2026-09-03T00:00:01.392431Z","rules":"This market will resolve to \"Yes\" if Google's next Gemini Flash model (3.9+) is made available to the general public between market creation and the specified date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to \"No\".\n\nA qualifying model must have a name or model identifier that includes \"Gemini,\" be labeled \"Flash\" rather than \"Flash-Lite,\" be positioned as Google's core general-purpose Gemini Flash model, and be designated as version 3.9 or higher, regardless of capitalization or surrounding prefixes, suffixes, dates, or descriptors. For example, a version 3.9 or higher named in the same manner as Gemini 3.7 Flash or Gemini 3.8 Flash would qualify, including a new whole-number generation such as Gemini 4 Flash, while models labeled \"Flash-Lite\" or which retain a version designation below 3.9, such as Gemini 3.8 Flash (released September 2, 2026), including any rollout, promotion, or snapshot of it, will not qualify. Specialized modality or security variants, such as Gemini Flash Image, Gemini Flash-Lite Image, Gemini Omni Flash, Gemini Flash Cyber, or Flash TTS or Live models, will not qualify.\n\nA qualifying model must be launched and publicly accessible, including via open beta or open rolling waitlist signups. A closed beta or any form of private access will not suffice. The release must either be clearly defined and publicly announced by Google as accessible to the general public, or otherwise be made publicly accessible and explicitly labeled on the company's official website. Labeling errors, placeholder text, or version names displayed on the website that do not correspond to a model that is actually accessible to the general public will not qualify.\n\nThe primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Google, with additional verification from a consensus of credible reporting.","rules_hash":"668eb07251ef50a04b386c7df2cfb91aa9c787bf0800b410a03567b4b7e492da","observed_at":"2026-10-25T17:45:13.498152+00:00"},{"id":"polymarket:6017394","venue":"Polymarket","lab":"deepseek","event_id":"1230565","group":"Next DeepSeek Flash","question":"Next DeepSeek Flash released by November 30, 2026?","deadline_at":"2026-12-01T05:00:00+00:00","deadline_label":"By Nov 30, 2026 (ET)","bid":0.2,"ask":0.5,"midpoint":0.35,"spread":0.3,"url":"https://polymarket.com/event/next-deepseek-flash-released-byptptpt-20261021-02/next-deepseek-flash-released-by-november-30-2026-20261021-02","active":true,"volume":305.0,"volume_unit":"USD","volume_24h":null,"result":null,"closed_at":null,"opened_at":"2026-10-21T17:09:17.733988Z","rules":"This market will resolve to \"Yes\" if DeepSeek's next Flash model is made available to the general public between market creation and the specified date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to \"No\".\n\nA qualifying model must be part of DeepSeek's core model series (currently the V-series), have a name or model identifier that includes \"DeepSeek\" and \"Flash,\" and be a new model release designated as newer than DeepSeek-V4.1-Flash-1017, regardless of capitalization or naming convention, including subsequently dated builds, decimal version increases, or new generations. For example, a later dated build named in the same manner as DeepSeek-V4.1-Flash-1017, a decimal increase such as DeepSeek-V4.2-Flash, or a new generation such as DeepSeek-V5-Flash would qualify, while side or specialized models, such as Janus-Pro, DeepSeek-OCR, or DeepSeek-V4-Flash-Vision-Exp, Pro-tier models such as DeepSeek-V4-Pro-0813 or DeepSeek-V4.1-Pro, and the existing DeepSeek-V4.1-Flash-1017 (released October 17, 2026), including any open-weight re-release, snapshot, or re-pointing of the deepseek-flash API alias to it, will not qualify. A qualifying release must carry a new, distinct model name or date designation, even if it is served through an unchanged API alias such as deepseek-flash; updates published without a new model name or date designation will not qualify. If DeepSeek releases a single unified successor without tier naming, it will qualify if it replaces or serves DeepSeek's lite or Flash endpoint or is positioned as DeepSeek's fast, low-cost model.\n\nA qualifying model must be launched and publicly accessible, including via open beta or open rolling waitlist signups. A closed beta or any form of private access will not suffice. The release must either be clearly defined and publicly announced by DeepSeek as accessible to the general public, or otherwise be made publicly accessible and explicitly labeled on the company's official website. Labeling errors, placeholder text, or version names displayed on the website that do not correspond to a model that is actually accessible to the general public will not qualify.\n\nThe primary resolution source for this market will be official information from DeepSeek, with additional verification from a consensus of credible reporting.","rules_hash":"fa65edc7a799f8f2082739d987a680fbe1c240a839fcd04b6ddee20898b0754b","observed_at":"2026-10-25T17:45:13.498152+00:00"},{"id":"polymarket:6017401","venue":"Polymarket","lab":"deepseek","event_id":"1230565","group":"Next DeepSeek Flash","question":"Next DeepSeek Flash released by December 31, 2026?","deadline_at":"2027-01-01T05:00:00+00:00","deadline_label":"By Dec 31, 2026 (ET)","bid":0.7,"ask":0.74,"midpoint":0.72,"spread":0.04,"url":"https://polymarket.com/event/next-deepseek-flash-released-byptptpt-20261021-02/next-deepseek-flash-released-by-december-31-2026-20261021-02","active":true,"volume":1079.416546,"volume_unit":"USD","volume_24h":50.0,"result":null,"closed_at":null,"opened_at":"2026-10-21T17:09:18.427011Z","rules":"This market will resolve to \"Yes\" if DeepSeek's next Flash model is made available to the general public between market creation and the specified date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to \"No\".\n\nA qualifying model must be part of DeepSeek's core model series (currently the V-series), have a name or model identifier that includes \"DeepSeek\" and \"Flash,\" and be a new model release designated as newer than DeepSeek-V4.1-Flash-1017, regardless of capitalization or naming convention, including subsequently dated builds, decimal version increases, or new generations. For example, a later dated build named in the same manner as DeepSeek-V4.1-Flash-1017, a decimal increase such as DeepSeek-V4.2-Flash, or a new generation such as DeepSeek-V5-Flash would qualify, while side or specialized models, such as Janus-Pro, DeepSeek-OCR, or DeepSeek-V4-Flash-Vision-Exp, Pro-tier models such as DeepSeek-V4-Pro-0813 or DeepSeek-V4.1-Pro, and the existing DeepSeek-V4.1-Flash-1017 (released October 17, 2026), including any open-weight re-release, snapshot, or re-pointing of the deepseek-flash API alias to it, will not qualify. A qualifying release must carry a new, distinct model name or date designation, even if it is served through an unchanged API alias such as deepseek-flash; updates published without a new model name or date designation will not qualify. If DeepSeek releases a single unified successor without tier naming, it will qualify if it replaces or serves DeepSeek's lite or Flash endpoint or is positioned as DeepSeek's fast, low-cost model.\n\nA qualifying model must be launched and publicly accessible, including via open beta or open rolling waitlist signups. A closed beta or any form of private access will not suffice. The release must either be clearly defined and publicly announced by DeepSeek as accessible to the general public, or otherwise be made publicly accessible and explicitly labeled on the company's official website. Labeling errors, placeholder text, or version names displayed on the website that do not correspond to a model that is actually accessible to the general public will not qualify.\n\nThe primary resolution source for this market will be official information from DeepSeek, with additional verification from a consensus of credible reporting.","rules_hash":"1b114e09dc418927e6787b9fa76732b177f4f52cba643713c955af91c42fff99","observed_at":"2026-10-25T17:45:13.498152+00:00"},{"id":"polymarket:5443473","venue":"Polymarket","lab":"anthropic","event_id":"1156045","group":"Next Claude Haiku (5.6+)","question":"Next Claude Haiku (5.6+) released by December 31, 2026?","deadline_at":"2027-01-01T05:00:00+00:00","deadline_label":"By Dec 31, 2026 (ET)","bid":0.33,"ask":0.52,"midpoint":0.425,"spread":0.19,"url":"https://polymarket.com/event/next-claude-haiku-5pt6-released-byptptpt-20261008132000000/next-claude-haiku-5pt6-released-by-december-31-2026","active":true,"volume":921.2747260000001,"volume_unit":"USD","volume_24h":null,"result":null,"closed_at":null,"opened_at":"2026-10-08T21:58:47.170072Z","rules":"This market will resolve to \"Yes\" if Anthropic's next Claude Haiku model (5.6+) is made available to the general public between market creation and the specified date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to \"No\".\n\nA qualifying model must have a name or model identifier that includes \"Haiku\" and be designated as version 5.6 or higher, regardless of capitalization or surrounding prefixes, suffixes, dates, or descriptors. For example, a version 5.6 or higher named in the same manner as Claude Haiku 4.5 or Claude Haiku 5.5 would qualify, including a new whole-number generation such as Claude Haiku 6, while models whose name does not include \"Haiku\" or which retain a version designation below 5.6, such as Claude Haiku 5.5, including any rollout, promotion, or snapshot of it, will not qualify.\n\nA qualifying model must be launched and publicly accessible, including via open beta or open rolling waitlist signups. A closed beta or any form of private access will not suffice. The release must either be clearly defined and publicly announced by Anthropic as accessible to the general public, or otherwise be made publicly accessible and explicitly labeled on the company's official website. Labeling errors, placeholder text, or version names displayed on the website that do not correspond to a model that is actually accessible to the general public will not qualify.\n\nThe primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Anthropic, with additional verification from a consensus of credible reporting.","rules_hash":"9a749d6112eefa0031b5b03624fb429f8d714222c31b1484e43d7a487ef50854","observed_at":"2026-10-25T17:45:13.498152+00:00"},{"id":"polymarket:5443474","venue":"Polymarket","lab":"anthropic","event_id":"1156045","group":"Next Claude Haiku (5.6+)","question":"Next Claude Haiku (5.6+) released by January 31, 2027?","deadline_at":"2027-02-01T05:00:00+00:00","deadline_label":"By Jan 31, 2027 (ET)","bid":0.44,"ask":0.46,"midpoint":0.45,"spread":0.02,"url":"https://polymarket.com/event/next-claude-haiku-5pt6-released-byptptpt-20261008132000000/next-claude-haiku-5pt6-released-by-january-31-2027","active":true,"volume":1105.8477890000001,"volume_unit":"USD","volume_24h":40.0,"result":null,"closed_at":null,"opened_at":"2026-10-08T21:58:47.661015Z","rules":"This market will resolve to \"Yes\" if Anthropic's next Claude Haiku model (5.6+) is made available to the general public between market creation and the specified date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to \"No\".\n\nA qualifying model must have a name or model identifier that includes \"Haiku\" and be designated as version 5.6 or higher, regardless of capitalization or surrounding prefixes, suffixes, dates, or descriptors. For example, a version 5.6 or higher named in the same manner as Claude Haiku 4.5 or Claude Haiku 5.5 would qualify, including a new whole-number generation such as Claude Haiku 6, while models whose name does not include \"Haiku\" or which retain a version designation below 5.6, such as Claude Haiku 5.5, including any rollout, promotion, or snapshot of it, will not qualify.\n\nA qualifying model must be launched and publicly accessible, including via open beta or open rolling waitlist signups. A closed beta or any form of private access will not suffice. The release must either be clearly defined and publicly announced by Anthropic as accessible to the general public, or otherwise be made publicly accessible and explicitly labeled on the company's official website. Labeling errors, placeholder text, or version names displayed on the website that do not correspond to a model that is actually accessible to the general public will not qualify.\n\nThe primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Anthropic, with additional verification from a consensus of credible reporting.","rules_hash":"6eff40daae426d46a4da80adcb4c40a198e5eadd36c8edbe76ead283e848c0b0","observed_at":"2026-10-25T17:45:13.498152+00:00"},{"id":"polymarket:3592204","venue":"Polymarket","lab":"deepseek","event_id":"850753","group":"Next DeepSeek Pro","question":"Next DeepSeek Pro released by October 31, 2026?","deadline_at":"2026-11-01T04:00:00+00:00","deadline_label":"By Oct 31, 2026 (ET)","bid":0.01,"ask":0.036,"midpoint":0.023,"spread":0.026,"url":"https://polymarket.com/event/next-deepseek-pro-released-byptptpt/next-deepseek-pro-released-by-october-31-2026-822","active":true,"volume":14735.003309,"volume_unit":"USD","volume_24h":null,"result":null,"closed_at":null,"opened_at":"2026-08-14T21:50:17.006391Z","rules":"This market will resolve to \"Yes\" if DeepSeek's next Pro model is made available to the general public between market creation and the specified date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to \"No\".\n\nA qualifying model must be part of DeepSeek's core model series (currently the V-series), have a name or model identifier that includes \"DeepSeek\" and \"Pro,\" and be a new model release designated as newer than DeepSeek-V4-Pro-0813, regardless of capitalization or naming convention, including subsequently dated builds, decimal version increases, or new generations. For example, a later dated build named in the same manner as DeepSeek-V4-Pro-0813, a decimal increase such as DeepSeek-V4.1-Pro, or a new generation such as DeepSeek-V5-Pro would qualify, while side or specialized models, such as Janus-Pro or DeepSeek-OCR, or models which are not newer releases than DeepSeek-V4-Pro-0813, such as DeepSeek-V4-Flash or the existing DeepSeek-V4-Pro-0813, will not qualify. A qualifying release must carry a new, distinct model identifier or date designation; updates published under an unchanged identifier will not qualify. If DeepSeek releases a single unified successor without tier naming, it will qualify if it replaces or serves DeepSeek's flagship endpoint or is positioned as DeepSeek's flagship model.\n\nA qualifying model must be launched and publicly accessible, including via open beta or open rolling waitlist signups. A closed beta or any form of private access will not suffice. The release must either be clearly defined and publicly announced by DeepSeek as accessible to the general public, or otherwise be made publicly accessible and explicitly labeled on the company's official website. Labeling errors, placeholder text, or version names displayed on the website that do not correspond to a model that is actually accessible to the general public will not qualify.\n\nThe primary resolution source for this market will be official information from DeepSeek, with additional verification from a consensus of credible reporting.","rules_hash":"84163e5becbcc16e2d34379f1eb32bb7ae932c91efc5390bbdeba99cc5fd256d","observed_at":"2026-10-25T17:45:13.498152+00:00"},{"id":"polymarket:3592205","venue":"Polymarket","lab":"deepseek","event_id":"850753","group":"Next DeepSeek Pro","question":"Next DeepSeek Pro released by November 30, 2026?","deadline_at":"2026-12-01T05:00:00+00:00","deadline_label":"By Nov 30, 2026 (ET)","bid":0.13,"ask":0.27,"midpoint":0.2,"spread":0.14,"url":"https://polymarket.com/event/next-deepseek-pro-released-byptptpt/next-deepseek-pro-released-by-november-30-2026-853","active":true,"volume":8781.697367999997,"volume_unit":"USD","volume_24h":6.43,"result":null,"closed_at":null,"opened_at":"2026-08-14T21:50:17.336291Z","rules":"This market will resolve to \"Yes\" if DeepSeek's next Pro model is made available to the general public between market creation and the specified date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to \"No\".\n\nA qualifying model must be part of DeepSeek's core model series (currently the V-series), have a name or model identifier that includes \"DeepSeek\" and \"Pro,\" and be a new model release designated as newer than DeepSeek-V4-Pro-0813, regardless of capitalization or naming convention, including subsequently dated builds, decimal version increases, or new generations. For example, a later dated build named in the same manner as DeepSeek-V4-Pro-0813, a decimal increase such as DeepSeek-V4.1-Pro, or a new generation such as DeepSeek-V5-Pro would qualify, while side or specialized models, such as Janus-Pro or DeepSeek-OCR, or models which are not newer releases than DeepSeek-V4-Pro-0813, such as DeepSeek-V4-Flash or the existing DeepSeek-V4-Pro-0813, will not qualify. A qualifying release must carry a new, distinct model identifier or date designation; updates published under an unchanged identifier will not qualify. If DeepSeek releases a single unified successor without tier naming, it will qualify if it replaces or serves DeepSeek's flagship endpoint or is positioned as DeepSeek's flagship model.\n\nA qualifying model must be launched and publicly accessible, including via open beta or open rolling waitlist signups. A closed beta or any form of private access will not suffice. The release must either be clearly defined and publicly announced by DeepSeek as accessible to the general public, or otherwise be made publicly accessible and explicitly labeled on the company's official website. Labeling errors, placeholder text, or version names displayed on the website that do not correspond to a model that is actually accessible to the general public will not qualify.\n\nThe primary resolution source for this market will be official information from DeepSeek, with additional verification from a consensus of credible reporting.","rules_hash":"ff5176cb6c7bb4d49725d65efc75c92c43e91d159e57434c227c810d62687a78","observed_at":"2026-10-25T17:45:13.498152+00:00"},{"id":"polymarket:5402417","venue":"Polymarket","lab":"meta","event_id":"1147532","group":"Muse Charm","question":"Muse Charm released by December 15, 2026?","deadline_at":"2026-12-16T05:00:00+00:00","deadline_label":"By Dec 15, 2026 (ET)","bid":0.71,"ask":0.74,"midpoint":0.725,"spread":0.03,"url":"https://polymarket.com/event/muse-charm-released-by/muse-charm-released-by-december-15-2026","active":true,"volume":2356.277098,"volume_unit":"USD","volume_24h":null,"result":null,"closed_at":null,"opened_at":"2026-10-07T09:21:42.597747Z","rules":"This market will resolve to \"Yes\" if Meta officially releases the Muse Charm by 11:59 PM ET on the specified date. Otherwise, this market will resolve to \"No\".\n\n\"Muse Charm\" refers to the device unveiled by Meta on September 23, 2026, including its final commercial version under any name or branding. Any name change or rebranding of the Muse Charm will have no bearing on this market's resolution.\n\nIn order to be considered released, the product must be available for purchase by the general public in the United States and shipments to public customers or availability for customer pickup must have begun by the specified deadline. Availability in selected US locations or in limited quantities will qualify. Access restricted to selected testers or invitees will not qualify. An announcement, unveiling, or pre-order period alone is not sufficient.\n\nThe primary resolution sources for this market will be official statements and product pages from Meta; however, availability information from authorized retailers or a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.","rules_hash":"458366baced34df90baa0e74f221880e8074a46bd8fddc95cc22acbf54e1d5cb","observed_at":"2026-10-25T17:45:13.498152+00:00"},{"id":"polymarket:5402418","venue":"Polymarket","lab":"meta","event_id":"1147532","group":"Muse Charm","question":"Muse Charm released by December 31, 2026?","deadline_at":"2027-01-01T05:00:00+00:00","deadline_label":"By Dec 31, 2026 (ET)","bid":0.75,"ask":0.89,"midpoint":0.82,"spread":0.14,"url":"https://polymarket.com/event/muse-charm-released-by/muse-charm-released-by-december-31-2026","active":true,"volume":2428.4933809999998,"volume_unit":"USD","volume_24h":2.79,"result":null,"closed_at":null,"opened_at":"2026-10-07T09:21:43.121487Z","rules":"This market will resolve to \"Yes\" if Meta officially releases the Muse Charm by 11:59 PM ET on the specified date. Otherwise, this market will resolve to \"No\".\n\n\"Muse Charm\" refers to the device unveiled by Meta on September 23, 2026, including its final commercial version under any name or branding. Any name change or rebranding of the Muse Charm will have no bearing on this market's resolution.\n\nIn order to be considered released, the product must be available for purchase by the general public in the United States and shipments to public customers or availability for customer pickup must have begun by the specified deadline. Availability in selected US locations or in limited quantities will qualify. Access restricted to selected testers or invitees will not qualify. An announcement, unveiling, or pre-order period alone is not sufficient.\n\nThe primary resolution sources for this market will be official statements and product pages from Meta; however, availability information from authorized retailers or a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.","rules_hash":"5195c164fc72353b8197e82f2e1c00640c6c0877bf74b04f5ddd41e821643732","observed_at":"2026-10-25T17:45:13.498152+00:00"},{"id":"polymarket:4852540","venue":"Polymarket","lab":"alibaba","event_id":"850783","group":"Next Alibaba Qwen Plus (3.8+)","question":"Next Alibaba Qwen Plus (3.8+) released by December 31, 2026?","deadline_at":"2027-01-01T05:00:00+00:00","deadline_label":"By Dec 31, 2026 (ET)","bid":0.71,"ask":0.94,"midpoint":0.825,"spread":0.23,"url":"https://polymarket.com/event/next-alibaba-qwen-plus-3pt8-released-byptptpt/next-alibaba-qwen-plus-3pt8-released-by-december-31-2026","active":true,"volume":1218.805192,"volume_unit":"USD","volume_24h":1.8,"result":null,"closed_at":null,"opened_at":"2026-09-22T19:40:31.848277Z","rules":"This market will resolve to \"Yes\" if Alibaba's next Qwen Plus model (3.8+) is made available to the general public between market creation and the specified date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to \"No\".\n\nA qualifying model must have a name or model identifier that includes \"Qwen\" and \"Plus,\" be the flagship model of Alibaba's core Qwen Plus tier, and be designated as version 3.8 or higher, regardless of capitalization or surrounding prefixes, suffixes, dates, or descriptors. For example, a version 3.8 or higher named in the same manner as Qwen3.6-Plus or Qwen3.7-Plus would qualify, including a new whole-number generation such as Qwen4-Plus, while models whose name does not include \"Plus\" or which retain a version designation below 3.8, such as Qwen3.7-Max, Qwen3.6-Flash, or Qwen3.7-Plus, will not qualify. Derivative lines such as VL, Coder, Omni, or other specialized variants, such as Qwen3-VL-Plus, will not qualify.\n\nA qualifying model must be launched and publicly accessible, including via open beta or open rolling waitlist signups. A closed beta or any form of private access will not suffice. The release must either be clearly defined and publicly announced by Alibaba as accessible to the general public, or otherwise be made publicly accessible and explicitly labeled on the company's official website. Labeling errors, placeholder text, or version names displayed on the website that do not correspond to a model that is actually accessible to the general public will not qualify.\n\nThe primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Alibaba, with additional verification from a consensus of credible reporting.","rules_hash":"3abda1770599466d2122ed154661cd85fe52ec5e8a3bb3fdb8b4f607237eb953","observed_at":"2026-10-25T17:45:13.498152+00:00"},{"id":"polymarket:4852541","venue":"Polymarket","lab":"alibaba","event_id":"850783","group":"Next Alibaba Qwen Plus (3.8+)","question":"Next Alibaba Qwen Plus (3.8+) released by October 31, 2026?","deadline_at":"2026-11-01T04:00:00+00:00","deadline_label":"By Oct 31, 2026 (ET)","bid":0.06,"ask":0.46,"midpoint":0.26,"spread":0.4,"url":"https://polymarket.com/event/next-alibaba-qwen-plus-3pt8-released-byptptpt/next-alibaba-qwen-plus-3pt8-released-by-october-31-2026","active":true,"volume":580.222595,"volume_unit":"USD","volume_24h":null,"result":null,"closed_at":null,"opened_at":"2026-09-22T19:40:32.517918Z","rules":"This market will resolve to \"Yes\" if Alibaba's next Qwen Plus model (3.8+) is made available to the general public between market creation and the specified date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to \"No\".\n\nA qualifying model must have a name or model identifier that includes \"Qwen\" and \"Plus,\" be the flagship model of Alibaba's core Qwen Plus tier, and be designated as version 3.8 or higher, regardless of capitalization or surrounding prefixes, suffixes, dates, or descriptors. For example, a version 3.8 or higher named in the same manner as Qwen3.6-Plus or Qwen3.7-Plus would qualify, including a new whole-number generation such as Qwen4-Plus, while models whose name does not include \"Plus\" or which retain a version designation below 3.8, such as Qwen3.7-Max, Qwen3.6-Flash, or Qwen3.7-Plus, will not qualify. Derivative lines such as VL, Coder, Omni, or other specialized variants, such as Qwen3-VL-Plus, will not qualify.\n\nA qualifying model must be launched and publicly accessible, including via open beta or open rolling waitlist signups. A closed beta or any form of private access will not suffice. The release must either be clearly defined and publicly announced by Alibaba as accessible to the general public, or otherwise be made publicly accessible and explicitly labeled on the company's official website. Labeling errors, placeholder text, or version names displayed on the website that do not correspond to a model that is actually accessible to the general public will not qualify.\n\nThe primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Alibaba, with additional verification from a consensus of credible reporting.","rules_hash":"0be39d78ad331a40da6fafabd53274ff4b3a6f0fe9165221e14a35a1913c7ec0","observed_at":"2026-10-25T17:45:13.498152+00:00"},{"id":"polymarket:4214085","venue":"Polymarket","lab":"meta","event_id":"964460","group":"Next Muse Spark (1.4+)","question":"Next Muse Spark (1.4+) released by October 31, 2026?","deadline_at":"2026-11-01T04:00:00+00:00","deadline_label":"By Oct 31, 2026 (ET)","bid":0.06,"ask":0.1,"midpoint":0.08,"spread":0.04,"url":"https://polymarket.com/event/next-muse-spark-1pt4-released-byptptpt/next-muse-spark-1pt4-released-by-october-31-2026","active":true,"volume":11112.202862,"volume_unit":"USD","volume_24h":null,"result":null,"closed_at":null,"opened_at":"2026-09-04T14:28:47.677691Z","rules":"This market will resolve to \"Yes\" if Meta's next Muse Spark model (1.4+) is made available to the general public between market creation and the specified date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to \"No\".\n\nA qualifying model must have a name or model identifier that includes \"Muse Spark\" and be designated as version 1.4 or higher, regardless of capitalization, hyphenation, spacing, or surrounding prefixes, suffixes, dates, or descriptors. For example, a version 1.4 or higher named in the same manner as Muse Spark 1.2 or Muse Spark 1.3 would qualify, including a new whole-number generation such as Muse Spark 2, while models whose name does not include \"Muse Spark\" or which retain a version designation below 1.4, such as Muse Spark 1.3 (released September 2, 2026, including any of its reasoning modes, open-weight re-releases, rollouts, promotions, or snapshots), Muse Glimmer, or Muse Image, will not qualify.\n\nA qualifying model must be launched and publicly accessible, including via open beta or open rolling waitlist signups. A closed beta or any form of private access will not suffice. The release must either be clearly defined and publicly announced by Meta as accessible to the general public, or otherwise be made publicly accessible and explicitly labeled on the company's official website. Labeling errors, placeholder text, or version names displayed on the website that do not correspond to a model that is actually accessible to the general public will not qualify.\n\nThe primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Meta, with additional verification from a consensus of credible reporting.","rules_hash":"f4aee8784169bbe23a06cb7d88ec26cabd5b5fc18251a734ad4c4e11284da79a","observed_at":"2026-10-25T17:45:13.498152+00:00"},{"id":"polymarket:3592180","venue":"Polymarket","lab":"google","event_id":"850742","group":"Next Google Gemini Flash-Lite Model (3.6+)","question":"Next Google Gemini Flash-Lite Model (3.6+) released by November 30, 2026?","deadline_at":"2026-12-01T05:00:00+00:00","deadline_label":"By Nov 30, 2026 (ET)","bid":0.38,"ask":0.72,"midpoint":0.55,"spread":0.34,"url":"https://polymarket.com/event/next-google-gemini-flash-lite-model-3pt6-released-byptptpt/next-google-gemini-flash-lite-model-3pt6-released-by-november-30-2026-196","active":true,"volume":3830.180277,"volume_unit":"USD","volume_24h":null,"result":null,"closed_at":null,"opened_at":"2026-08-14T21:47:16.307668Z","rules":"This market will resolve to \"Yes\" if Google's next Gemini Flash-Lite model (3.6+) is made available to the general public between market creation and the specified date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to \"No\".\n\nA qualifying model must have a name or model identifier that includes \"Gemini\" and \"Flash-Lite\" and be designated as version 3.6 or higher, regardless of capitalization, hyphenation, or surrounding prefixes, suffixes, dates, or descriptors. For example, a version 3.6 or higher named in the same manner as Gemini 3.1 Flash-Lite or Gemini 3.5 Flash-Lite would qualify, including a new whole-number generation such as Gemini 4 Flash-Lite, while models whose name does not include \"Flash-Lite\" or which retain a version designation below 3.6, such as Gemini 3.6 Flash or Gemini 3.5 Flash-Lite, will not qualify. Specialized modality variants, such as Gemini Flash-Lite Image, will not qualify.\n\nA qualifying model must be launched and publicly accessible, including via open beta or open rolling waitlist signups. A closed beta or any form of private access will not suffice. The release must either be clearly defined and publicly announced by Google as accessible to the general public, or otherwise be made publicly accessible and explicitly labeled on the company's official website. Labeling errors, placeholder text, or version names displayed on the website that do not correspond to a model that is actually accessible to the general public will not qualify.\n\nThe primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Google, with additional verification from a consensus of credible reporting.","rules_hash":"0013a3f29ef505baee5f0ad8f2bad315c92dbce43813244da399e90282091421","observed_at":"2026-10-25T17:45:13.498152+00:00"},{"id":"polymarket:3668686","venue":"Polymarket","lab":"google","event_id":"850742","group":"Next Google Gemini Flash-Lite Model (3.6+)","question":"Next Google Gemini Flash-Lite Model (3.6+) released by October 31, 2026?","deadline_at":"2026-11-01T04:00:00+00:00","deadline_label":"By Oct 31, 2026 (ET)","bid":0.042,"ask":0.27,"midpoint":0.156,"spread":0.228,"url":"https://polymarket.com/event/next-google-gemini-flash-lite-model-3pt6-released-byptptpt/next-google-gemini-flash-lite-model-3pt6-released-by-october-31-2026","active":true,"volume":1049.7911640000002,"volume_unit":"USD","volume_24h":null,"result":null,"closed_at":null,"opened_at":"2026-08-17T13:39:22.446006Z","rules":"This market will resolve to \"Yes\" if Google's next Gemini Flash-Lite model (3.6+) is made available to the general public between market creation and the specified date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to \"No\".\n\nA qualifying model must have a name or model identifier that includes \"Gemini\" and \"Flash-Lite\" and be designated as version 3.6 or higher, regardless of capitalization, hyphenation, or surrounding prefixes, suffixes, dates, or descriptors. For example, a version 3.6 or higher named in the same manner as Gemini 3.1 Flash-Lite or Gemini 3.5 Flash-Lite would qualify, including a new whole-number generation such as Gemini 4 Flash-Lite, while models whose name does not include \"Flash-Lite\" or which retain a version designation below 3.6, such as Gemini 3.6 Flash or Gemini 3.5 Flash-Lite, will not qualify. Specialized modality variants, such as Gemini Flash-Lite Image, will not qualify.\n\nA qualifying model must be launched and publicly accessible, including via open beta or open rolling waitlist signups. A closed beta or any form of private access will not suffice. The release must either be clearly defined and publicly announced by Google as accessible to the general public, or otherwise be made publicly accessible and explicitly labeled on the company's official website. Labeling errors, placeholder text, or version names displayed on the website that do not correspond to a model that is actually accessible to the general public will not qualify.\n\nThe primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Google, with additional verification from a consensus of credible reporting.","rules_hash":"7d0d1e955de8a0c831b248cfc8d56389d4b44ad6e45f083a14605ded4d116c19","observed_at":"2026-10-25T17:45:13.498152+00:00"},{"id":"polymarket:5636007","venue":"Polymarket","lab":"meta","event_id":"1179500","group":"Next Muse Wonder (1.1+)","question":"Next Muse Wonder (1.1+) released by December 31, 2026?","deadline_at":"2027-01-01T05:00:00+00:00","deadline_label":"By Dec 31, 2026 (ET)","bid":0.48,"ask":0.5,"midpoint":0.49,"spread":0.02,"url":"https://polymarket.com/event/next-muse-wonder-1pt1-released-byptptpt/next-muse-wonder-1pt1-released-by-december-31-2026","active":true,"volume":1179.27,"volume_unit":"USD","volume_24h":null,"result":null,"closed_at":null,"opened_at":"2026-10-12T21:01:05.630474Z","rules":"This market will resolve to \"Yes\" if Meta's next Muse Wonder model (1.1+) is made available to the general public between market creation and the specified date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to \"No\".\n\nA qualifying model must have a name or model identifier that includes \"Muse Wonder\" and be designated as version 1.1 or higher, regardless of capitalization, hyphenation, spacing, or surrounding prefixes, suffixes, dates, or descriptors. For example, a version 1.1 or higher named in the same manner as Muse Wonder (muse-wonder-1.0) or Muse Wonder Full (muse-wonder-full-1.0) would qualify, including a new whole-number generation such as Muse Wonder 2, while models whose name does not include \"Wonder,\" such as Muse Spark or Muse Glimmer models, or which retain a version designation of 1.0 or below, such as Muse Wonder and Muse Wonder Full (both released October 12, 2026), including any rollout, promotion, or snapshot of either, will not qualify.\n\nA qualifying model must be launched and publicly accessible, including via open beta or open rolling waitlist signups. A closed beta or any form of private access will not suffice. The release must either be clearly defined and publicly announced by Meta as accessible to the general public, or otherwise be made publicly accessible and explicitly labeled on the company's official website. Labeling errors, placeholder text, or version names displayed on the website that do not correspond to a model that is actually accessible to the general public will not qualify.\n\nThe primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Meta, with additional verification from a consensus of credible reporting.","rules_hash":"c6f02cd23cc9c6f00eb0cd66a3ab0adba2bb1ed44e2ccd9c89ca4c591bb31c74","observed_at":"2026-10-25T17:45:13.498152+00:00"},{"id":"polymarket:5636008","venue":"Polymarket","lab":"meta","event_id":"1179500","group":"Next Muse Wonder (1.1+)","question":"Next Muse Wonder (1.1+) released by January 31, 2027?","deadline_at":"2027-02-01T05:00:00+00:00","deadline_label":"By Jan 31, 2027 (ET)","bid":0.66,"ask":0.71,"midpoint":0.685,"spread":0.05,"url":"https://polymarket.com/event/next-muse-wonder-1pt1-released-byptptpt/next-muse-wonder-1pt1-released-by-january-31-2027","active":true,"volume":1303.932393,"volume_unit":"USD","volume_24h":null,"result":null,"closed_at":null,"opened_at":"2026-10-12T21:01:06.191851Z","rules":"This market will resolve to \"Yes\" if Meta's next Muse Wonder model (1.1+) is made available to the general public between market creation and the specified date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to \"No\".\n\nA qualifying model must have a name or model identifier that includes \"Muse Wonder\" and be designated as version 1.1 or higher, regardless of capitalization, hyphenation, spacing, or surrounding prefixes, suffixes, dates, or descriptors. For example, a version 1.1 or higher named in the same manner as Muse Wonder (muse-wonder-1.0) or Muse Wonder Full (muse-wonder-full-1.0) would qualify, including a new whole-number generation such as Muse Wonder 2, while models whose name does not include \"Wonder,\" such as Muse Spark or Muse Glimmer models, or which retain a version designation of 1.0 or below, such as Muse Wonder and Muse Wonder Full (both released October 12, 2026), including any rollout, promotion, or snapshot of either, will not qualify.\n\nA qualifying model must be launched and publicly accessible, including via open beta or open rolling waitlist signups. A closed beta or any form of private access will not suffice. The release must either be clearly defined and publicly announced by Meta as accessible to the general public, or otherwise be made publicly accessible and explicitly labeled on the company's official website. Labeling errors, placeholder text, or version names displayed on the website that do not correspond to a model that is actually accessible to the general public will not qualify.\n\nThe primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Meta, with additional verification from a consensus of credible reporting.","rules_hash":"bb2191159ef4d56b17616952b8fbe532372d1a40dfba7fec1560bc469878bbe4","observed_at":"2026-10-25T17:45:13.498152+00:00"},{"id":"polymarket:4421248","venue":"Polymarket","lab":"openai","event_id":"995832","group":"Next GPT Image Model (2.6+)","question":"Next GPT Image Model (2.6+) released by December 31, 2026?","deadline_at":"2027-01-01T05:00:00+00:00","deadline_label":"By Dec 31, 2026 (ET)","bid":0.06,"ask":0.71,"midpoint":0.385,"spread":0.65,"url":"https://polymarket.com/event/next-gpt-image-model-2pt6-released-by/next-gpt-image-model-2pt6-released-by-december-31-2026","active":true,"volume":36.227273,"volume_unit":"USD","volume_24h":null,"result":null,"closed_at":null,"opened_at":"2026-09-09T20:34:56.697877Z","rules":"This market will resolve to \"Yes\" if OpenAI's next GPT Image model (2.6+) is made available to the general public between market creation and the specified date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to \"No\".\n\nA qualifying model must have a name or model identifier that includes \"GPT Image\" and be designated as version 2.6 or higher, regardless of capitalization, hyphenation, spacing, or surrounding prefixes, suffixes, dates, or descriptors. For example, a version 2.6 or higher named in the same manner as GPT Image 2 or GPT Image 2.5 would qualify, including a new whole-number generation such as GPT Image 3, while models whose name does not include \"GPT Image\" or which retain a version designation of 2.5 or below, such as GPT Image 2.5 (released September 8, 2026), including its Flare and Sunburst variants, GPT Image 2, or DALL-E 3, will not qualify. Size, speed, or cost variants of any existing version, such as mini or turbo variants, and application or product version launches without a new qualifying underlying model, such as a \"ChatGPT Images 3.0\" product update, will not qualify.\n\nA qualifying model must be launched and publicly accessible, including via open beta or open rolling waitlist signups. A closed beta or any form of private access will not suffice. The release must either be clearly defined and publicly announced by OpenAI as accessible to the general public, or otherwise be made publicly accessible and explicitly labeled on the company's official website. Labeling errors, placeholder text, or version names displayed on the website that do not correspond to a model that is actually accessible to the general public will not qualify.\n\nThe primary resolution source for this market will be official information from OpenAI, with additional verification from a consensus of credible reporting.","rules_hash":"a0ad620e6751183b917005ac381fed1c86e9a021a80eee9129962fded2909c70","observed_at":"2026-10-25T17:45:13.498152+00:00"},{"id":"polymarket:4421251","venue":"Polymarket","lab":"openai","event_id":"995832","group":"Next GPT Image Model (2.6+)","question":"Next GPT Image Model (2.6+) released by January 31, 2027?","deadline_at":"2027-02-01T05:00:00+00:00","deadline_label":"By Jan 31, 2027 (ET)","bid":0.1,"ask":0.89,"midpoint":0.495,"spread":0.79,"url":"https://polymarket.com/event/next-gpt-image-model-2pt6-released-by/next-gpt-image-model-2pt6-released-by-january-31-2027","active":true,"volume":null,"volume_unit":"USD","volume_24h":null,"result":null,"closed_at":null,"opened_at":"2026-09-09T20:34:57.059779Z","rules":"This market will resolve to \"Yes\" if OpenAI's next GPT Image model (2.6+) is made available to the general public between market creation and the specified date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to \"No\".\n\nA qualifying model must have a name or model identifier that includes \"GPT Image\" and be designated as version 2.6 or higher, regardless of capitalization, hyphenation, spacing, or surrounding prefixes, suffixes, dates, or descriptors. For example, a version 2.6 or higher named in the same manner as GPT Image 2 or GPT Image 2.5 would qualify, including a new whole-number generation such as GPT Image 3, while models whose name does not include \"GPT Image\" or which retain a version designation of 2.5 or below, such as GPT Image 2.5 (released September 8, 2026), including its Flare and Sunburst variants, GPT Image 2, or DALL-E 3, will not qualify. Size, speed, or cost variants of any existing version, such as mini or turbo variants, and application or product version launches without a new qualifying underlying model, such as a \"ChatGPT Images 3.0\" product update, will not qualify.\n\nA qualifying model must be launched and publicly accessible, including via open beta or open rolling waitlist signups. A closed beta or any form of private access will not suffice. The release must either be clearly defined and publicly announced by OpenAI as accessible to the general public, or otherwise be made publicly accessible and explicitly labeled on the company's official website. Labeling errors, placeholder text, or version names displayed on the website that do not correspond to a model that is actually accessible to the general public will not qualify.\n\nThe primary resolution source for this market will be official information from OpenAI, with additional verification from a consensus of credible reporting.","rules_hash":"a45db54b9d3ae5b7dc56afb90ec801c3fd6a7590a1d588b5317cc47610db3d24","observed_at":"2026-10-25T17:45:13.498152+00:00"},{"id":"kalshi:KXGPT-ASTRA61-26DEC31","venue":"Kalshi","lab":"openai","event_id":"KXGPT-ASTRA61","group":"Astra 6.1","question":"Will OpenAI release Astra 6.1 before Dec 31, 2026?","deadline_at":"2026-12-31T05:00:00+00:00","deadline_label":"Before Dec 31, 2026 (ET)","bid":0.61,"ask":0.67,"midpoint":0.64,"spread":0.06,"url":"https://kalshi.com/markets/kxgpt/chatgpt-release-date/kxgpt-astra61","active":true,"volume":1245.36,"volume_unit":"contracts","volume_24h":4.4,"result":null,"closed_at":null,"opened_at":"2026-10-20T03:30:00Z","rules":"If OpenAI releases Astra 6.1 before Dec 31, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.\n\nRelease must be to the public, outside of a closed beta, though limiting it to a high-cost subscription tier is acceptable.","rules_hash":"27d5281993853509e9ac941b4a66d9c7d186e628099fca54548cb00e1096e23b","observed_at":"2026-10-25T17:45:13.441307+00:00"},{"id":"kalshi:KXGPT-GPT7-28JAN01","venue":"Kalshi","lab":"openai","event_id":"KXGPT-GPT7","group":"GPT-7","question":"Will OpenAI release GPT-7 before Jan 1, 2028?","deadline_at":"2028-01-01T05:00:00+00:00","deadline_label":"Before Jan 1, 2028 (ET)","bid":0.82,"ask":0.83,"midpoint":0.825,"spread":0.01,"url":"https://kalshi.com/markets/kxgpt/chatgpt-release-date/kxgpt-gpt7","active":true,"volume":152.29,"volume_unit":"contracts","volume_24h":0.0,"result":null,"closed_at":null,"opened_at":"2026-09-22T14:00:00Z","rules":"If OpenAI releases GPT-7 before Jan 1, 2028, then the market resolves to Yes.\n\nRelease must be to the public, outside of a closed beta, though limiting it to a high-cost subscription tier is acceptable.","rules_hash":"2ab7201f1e112a1545f3dd8aacd80dc39c1e393f8c678cf825f6f3a5f0d9a4a6","observed_at":"2026-10-25T17:45:13.567816+00:00"},{"id":"kalshi:KXGPT-GPT7-27SEP01","venue":"Kalshi","lab":"openai","event_id":"KXGPT-GPT7","group":"GPT-7","question":"Will OpenAI release GPT-7 before Sep 1, 2027?","deadline_at":"2027-09-01T04:00:00+00:00","deadline_label":"Before Sep 1, 2027 (ET)","bid":0.58,"ask":0.59,"midpoint":0.585,"spread":0.01,"url":"https://kalshi.com/markets/kxgpt/chatgpt-release-date/kxgpt-gpt7","active":true,"volume":9.23,"volume_unit":"contracts","volume_24h":0.0,"result":null,"closed_at":null,"opened_at":"2026-09-22T14:00:00Z","rules":"If OpenAI releases GPT-7 before Sep 1, 2027, then the market resolves to Yes.\n\nRelease must be to the public, outside of a closed beta, though limiting it to a high-cost subscription tier is acceptable.","rules_hash":"d0060abdfefd6c6e413e138afbfc8ec717f03c60633fc9e16dfad5f8b795faa8","observed_at":"2026-10-25T17:45:13.568024+00:00"},{"id":"kalshi:KXGPT-GPT7-27MAR01","venue":"Kalshi","lab":"openai","event_id":"KXGPT-GPT7","group":"GPT-7","question":"Will OpenAI release GPT-7 before Mar 1, 2027?","deadline_at":"2027-03-01T05:00:00+00:00","deadline_label":"Before Mar 1, 2027 (ET)","bid":0.13,"ask":0.14,"midpoint":0.135,"spread":0.01,"url":"https://kalshi.com/markets/kxgpt/chatgpt-release-date/kxgpt-gpt7","active":true,"volume":5540.21,"volume_unit":"contracts","volume_24h":0.0,"result":null,"closed_at":null,"opened_at":"2026-09-22T14:00:00Z","rules":"If OpenAI releases GPT-7 before Mar 1, 2027, then the market resolves to Yes.\n\nRelease must be to the public, outside of a closed beta, though limiting it to a high-cost subscription tier is acceptable.","rules_hash":"5464bec679936c4eaa59ad97019e35b683de78e0bb830f7d70682d4f2f6498a8","observed_at":"2026-10-25T17:45:13.568114+00:00"},{"id":"kalshi:KXGPT-GPT7-27JUN01","venue":"Kalshi","lab":"openai","event_id":"KXGPT-GPT7","group":"GPT-7","question":"Will OpenAI release GPT-7 before Jun 1, 2027?","deadline_at":"2027-06-01T04:00:00+00:00","deadline_label":"Before Jun 1, 2027 (ET)","bid":0.34,"ask":0.35,"midpoint":0.345,"spread":0.01,"url":"https://kalshi.com/markets/kxgpt/chatgpt-release-date/kxgpt-gpt7","active":true,"volume":2103.0,"volume_unit":"contracts","volume_24h":0.0,"result":null,"closed_at":null,"opened_at":"2026-09-22T14:00:00Z","rules":"If OpenAI releases GPT-7 before Jun 1, 2027, then the market resolves to Yes.\n\nRelease must be to the public, outside of a closed beta, though limiting it to a high-cost subscription tier is acceptable.","rules_hash":"ea87262df5089892786118c698d2fe00101d8c711c57e9b48f5fd19808ff4cd8","observed_at":"2026-10-25T17:45:13.568185+00:00"},{"id":"kalshi:KXGPT-ASTRA61-26OCT30","venue":"Kalshi","lab":"openai","event_id":"KXGPT-ASTRA61","group":"Astra 6.1","question":"Will OpenAI release Astra 6.1 before Oct 30, 2026?","deadline_at":"2026-10-30T04:00:00+00:00","deadline_label":"Before Oct 30, 2026 (ET)","bid":0.01,"ask":0.02,"midpoint":0.015,"spread":0.01,"url":"https://kalshi.com/markets/kxgpt/chatgpt-release-date/kxgpt-astra61","active":true,"volume":64166.15,"volume_unit":"contracts","volume_24h":20.18,"result":null,"closed_at":null,"opened_at":"2026-09-17T13:50:00Z","rules":"If OpenAI releases Astra 6.1 before Oct 30, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.\n\nRelease must be to the public, outside of a closed beta, though limiting it to a high-cost subscription tier is acceptable.","rules_hash":"b3db08acfebe4dbc70fbfdb46e148f8fef33915e706377e0df1b99bc6ae4501e","observed_at":"2026-10-25T17:45:13.568711+00:00"},{"id":"kalshi:KXGPT-ASTRA61-26NOV13","venue":"Kalshi","lab":"openai","event_id":"KXGPT-ASTRA61","group":"Astra 6.1","question":"Will OpenAI release Astra 6.1 before Nov 13, 2026?","deadline_at":"2026-11-13T05:00:00+00:00","deadline_label":"Before Nov 13, 2026 (ET)","bid":0.25,"ask":0.26,"midpoint":0.255,"spread":0.01,"url":"https://kalshi.com/markets/kxgpt/chatgpt-release-date/kxgpt-astra61","active":true,"volume":91241.73,"volume_unit":"contracts","volume_24h":49.77,"result":null,"closed_at":null,"opened_at":"2026-09-17T13:50:00Z","rules":"If OpenAI releases Astra 6.1 before Nov 13, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.\n\nRelease must be to the public, outside of a closed beta, though limiting it to a high-cost subscription tier is acceptable.","rules_hash":"e523733b7bd92ffc78b749357c68e28e0c669a313384a241c5e7c533630f60a3","observed_at":"2026-10-25T17:45:13.569219+00:00"},{"id":"kalshi:KXGPT-ASTRA61-26NOV06","venue":"Kalshi","lab":"openai","event_id":"KXGPT-ASTRA61","group":"Astra 6.1","question":"Will OpenAI release Astra 6.1 before Nov 6, 2026?","deadline_at":"2026-11-06T05:00:00+00:00","deadline_label":"Before Nov 6, 2026 (ET)","bid":0.13,"ask":0.14,"midpoint":0.135,"spread":0.01,"url":"https://kalshi.com/markets/kxgpt/chatgpt-release-date/kxgpt-astra61","active":true,"volume":64378.38,"volume_unit":"contracts","volume_24h":0.0,"result":null,"closed_at":null,"opened_at":"2026-09-17T13:50:00Z","rules":"If OpenAI releases Astra 6.1 before Nov 6, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.\n\nRelease must be to the public, outside of a closed beta, though limiting it to a high-cost subscription tier is acceptable.","rules_hash":"551b0ed875b26c3e02d07ec65192460e3954cda8243a6ae6f42055bfe2e648cd","observed_at":"2026-10-25T17:45:13.569528+00:00"},{"id":"kalshi:KXCLAUDE-OPUS6-26DEC01","venue":"Kalshi","lab":"anthropic","event_id":"KXCLAUDE-OPUS6","group":"Opus 6","question":"Will Anthropic release Opus 6 before Dec 1, 2026?","deadline_at":"2026-12-01T05:00:00+00:00","deadline_label":"Before Dec 1, 2026 (ET)","bid":0.1,"ask":0.18,"midpoint":0.14,"spread":0.08,"url":"https://kalshi.com/markets/kxclaude/claude-model-release/kxclaude-opus6","active":true,"volume":34.0,"volume_unit":"contracts","volume_24h":0.0,"result":null,"closed_at":null,"opened_at":"2026-10-01T16:35:00Z","rules":"If Anthropic releases Opus 6 before Dec 1, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.\n\nRelease must be to the public, outside of a closed beta, though limiting it to a high-cost subscription tier is acceptable.","rules_hash":"3629abe47f52fc3af63064432a78fd222dce57d1f980d34a350778ee4419af32","observed_at":"2026-10-25T17:45:14.157929+00:00"},{"id":"kalshi:KXCLAUDE-OPUS6-26NOV16","venue":"Kalshi","lab":"anthropic","event_id":"KXCLAUDE-OPUS6","group":"Opus 6","question":"Will Anthropic release Opus 6 before Nov 16, 2026?","deadline_at":"2026-11-16T05:00:00+00:00","deadline_label":"Before Nov 16, 2026 (ET)","bid":0.07,"ask":0.13,"midpoint":0.1,"spread":0.06,"url":"https://kalshi.com/markets/kxclaude/claude-model-release/kxclaude-opus6","active":true,"volume":5.88,"volume_unit":"contracts","volume_24h":0.0,"result":null,"closed_at":null,"opened_at":"2026-10-01T16:35:00Z","rules":"If Anthropic releases Opus 6 before Nov 16, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.\n\nRelease must be to the public, outside of a closed beta, though limiting it to a high-cost subscription tier is acceptable.","rules_hash":"1d1e126117d87d6c09f0584a9e6c454f792b63626807fb978d1162b739e99bbf","observed_at":"2026-10-25T17:45:14.158097+00:00"},{"id":"kalshi:KXCLAUDE-CLAUDE6-27SEP30","venue":"Kalshi","lab":"anthropic","event_id":"KXCLAUDE-CLAUDE6","group":"Claude 6+ (any family)","question":"Will Anthropic release Claude 6+ (any family) before Sep 30, 2027?","deadline_at":"2027-09-30T04:00:00+00:00","deadline_label":"Before Sep 30, 2027 (ET)","bid":0.77,"ask":0.86,"midpoint":0.815,"spread":0.09,"url":"https://kalshi.com/markets/kxclaude/claude-model-release/kxclaude-claude6","active":true,"volume":200.0,"volume_unit":"contracts","volume_24h":0.0,"result":null,"closed_at":null,"opened_at":"2026-09-17T14:30:00Z","rules":"If Anthropic releases Claude 6+ (any family) before Sep 30, 2027, then the market resolves to Yes.\n\nRelease must be to the public, outside of a closed beta, though limiting it to a high-cost subscription tier is acceptable.\n\n","rules_hash":"e2012aa4686d9f663965c64e83b8e5d1908a7865dbd99e1691d1edb5de35ecee","observed_at":"2026-10-25T17:45:14.262410+00:00"},{"id":"kalshi:KXCLAUDE-CLAUDE6-27MAR31","venue":"Kalshi","lab":"anthropic","event_id":"KXCLAUDE-CLAUDE6","group":"Claude 6+ (any family)","question":"Will Anthropic release Claude 6+ (any family) before Mar 31, 2027?","deadline_at":"2027-03-31T04:00:00+00:00","deadline_label":"Before Mar 31, 2027 (ET)","bid":0.41,"ask":0.78,"midpoint":0.595,"spread":0.37,"url":"https://kalshi.com/markets/kxclaude/claude-model-release/kxclaude-claude6","active":true,"volume":5483.56,"volume_unit":"contracts","volume_24h":0.0,"result":null,"closed_at":null,"opened_at":"2026-09-17T14:30:00Z","rules":"If Anthropic releases Claude 6+ (any family) before Mar 31, 2027, then the market resolves to Yes.\n\nRelease must be to the public, outside of a closed beta, though limiting it to a high-cost subscription tier is acceptable.\n\n","rules_hash":"d317e436104da753259016b796a1508872b06af0fc8384fb91e5b4f81ce53ad1","observed_at":"2026-10-25T17:45:14.262541+00:00"},{"id":"kalshi:KXCLAUDE-CLAUDE6-27JUN30","venue":"Kalshi","lab":"anthropic","event_id":"KXCLAUDE-CLAUDE6","group":"Claude 6+ (any family)","question":"Will Anthropic release Claude 6+ (any family) before Jun 30, 2027?","deadline_at":"2027-06-30T04:00:00+00:00","deadline_label":"Before Jun 30, 2027 (ET)","bid":0.62,"ask":0.7,"midpoint":0.66,"spread":0.08,"url":"https://kalshi.com/markets/kxclaude/claude-model-release/kxclaude-claude6","active":true,"volume":836.0,"volume_unit":"contracts","volume_24h":0.0,"result":null,"closed_at":null,"opened_at":"2026-09-17T14:30:00Z","rules":"If Anthropic releases Claude 6+ (any family) before Jun 30, 2027, then the market resolves to Yes.\n\nRelease must be to the public, outside of a closed beta, though limiting it to a high-cost subscription tier is acceptable.\n\n","rules_hash":"ebd102e6f8c2636ec916039dceb2d917fe57bb766a4e16e5049e6b39885fe135","observed_at":"2026-10-25T17:45:14.262602+00:00"},{"id":"kalshi:KXCLAUDE-CLAUDE6-27DEC31","venue":"Kalshi","lab":"anthropic","event_id":"KXCLAUDE-CLAUDE6","group":"Claude 6+ (any family)","question":"Will Anthropic release Claude 6+ (any family) before Dec 31, 2027?","deadline_at":"2027-12-31T05:00:00+00:00","deadline_label":"Before Dec 31, 2027 (ET)","bid":0.85,"ask":0.94,"midpoint":0.895,"spread":0.09,"url":"https://kalshi.com/markets/kxclaude/claude-model-release/kxclaude-claude6","active":true,"volume":0.0,"volume_unit":"contracts","volume_24h":0.0,"result":null,"closed_at":null,"opened_at":"2026-09-17T14:30:00Z","rules":"If Anthropic releases Claude 6+ (any family) before Dec 31, 2027, then the market resolves to Yes.\n\nRelease must be to the public, outside of a closed beta, though limiting it to a high-cost subscription tier is acceptable.\n\n","rules_hash":"e3c3e774f835df20544784394e0b5c0d2a5d5845d04304dbca5d15a68e1ff0d7","observed_at":"2026-10-25T17:45:14.262665+00:00"},{"id":"kalshi:KXCLAUDE-CLAUDE6-26DEC31","venue":"Kalshi","lab":"anthropic","event_id":"KXCLAUDE-CLAUDE6","group":"Claude 6+ (any family)","question":"Will Anthropic release Claude 6+ (any family) before Dec 31, 2026?","deadline_at":"2026-12-31T05:00:00+00:00","deadline_label":"Before Dec 31, 2026 (ET)","bid":0.17,"ask":0.4,"midpoint":0.285,"spread":0.23,"url":"https://kalshi.com/markets/kxclaude/claude-model-release/kxclaude-claude6","active":true,"volume":3206.45,"volume_unit":"contracts","volume_24h":0.0,"result":null,"closed_at":null,"opened_at":"2026-09-17T14:30:00Z","rules":"If Anthropic releases Claude 6+ (any family) before Dec 31, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.\n\nRelease must be to the public, outside of a closed beta, though limiting it to a high-cost subscription tier is acceptable.\n\n","rules_hash":"d4079d269b7e9ab76733fe523b35dc146b4956c6ab6f5d2aa306cd8314751b12","observed_at":"2026-10-25T17:45:14.262719+00:00"},{"id":"kalshi:KXCLAUDE-OPUS6-26NOV01","venue":"Kalshi","lab":"anthropic","event_id":"KXCLAUDE-OPUS6","group":"Opus 6","question":"Will Anthropic release Opus 6 before Nov 1, 2026?","deadline_at":"2026-11-01T04:00:00+00:00","deadline_label":"Before Nov 1, 2026 (ET)","bid":0.01,"ask":0.06,"midpoint":0.035,"spread":0.05,"url":"https://kalshi.com/markets/kxclaude/claude-model-release/kxclaude-opus6","active":true,"volume":21393.04,"volume_unit":"contracts","volume_24h":20.18,"result":null,"closed_at":null,"opened_at":"2026-08-10T23:45:00Z","rules":"If Anthropic releases Opus 6 before Nov 1, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.\n\nRelease must be to the public, outside of a closed beta, though limiting it to a high-cost subscription tier is acceptable.","rules_hash":"b08686d672feb657564a20ea119f2e3da40fb05c4f60cf7cf41cb66efbb6d6b5","observed_at":"2026-10-25T17:45:14.262986+00:00"},{"id":"kalshi:KXCLAUDE-MYTH-27JAN01","venue":"Kalshi","lab":"anthropic","event_id":"KXCLAUDE-MYTH","group":"Mythos","question":"Will Anthropic release Mythos before Jan 1, 2027?","deadline_at":"2027-01-01T05:00:00+00:00","deadline_label":"Before Jan 1, 2027 (ET)","bid":0.11,"ask":0.13,"midpoint":0.12,"spread":0.02,"url":"https://kalshi.com/markets/kxclaude/claude-model-release/kxclaude-myth","active":true,"volume":296106.75,"volume_unit":"contracts","volume_24h":17.65,"result":null,"closed_at":null,"opened_at":"2026-04-16T02:00:00Z","rules":"If Anthropic releases A model called Mythos  before Jan 1, 2027, then the market resolves to Yes.\n\nRelease must be to the public, outside of a closed beta, though limiting it to a high-cost subscription tier is acceptable.\n\n**Important information:** To satisfy the Payout Criterion, Anthropic must release to the public a model named \"Mythos.\" Both conditions must be met by the same model:\n\nName. The model must be named \"Mythos\" (e.g., \"Claude Mythos 5\"). A model that Anthropic describes as \"Mythos-class\" or as belonging to the Mythos tier, but that carries a different name (e.g., \"Claude Fable 5\"), does not satisfy the Payout Criterion, even if Anthropic states it is the same underlying model with modified safety features.\n\nPublic release. A release restricted to a closed beta or to a limited set of approved or trusted organizations does not constitute a release to the public. A release available to the general public, including a release limited to a paid subscription tier, does constitute a release to the public.\n\nAccordingly, Anthropic's June 9, 2026 announcement does not satisfy the Payout Criterion: Claude Fable 5 was released to the public but is not named Mythos, and Claude Mythos 5 is currently restricted to a limited set of approved organizations. The market will remain open. If a model named \"Mythos\" becomes available to the public before the relevant date, the Contract will resolve in accordance with its terms.\n","rules_hash":"e10adae24d1eeaa2b4219738b22f8d63b74b4e3e555c12ac63836e0fb14645ed","observed_at":"2026-10-25T17:45:14.465097+00:00"},{"id":"kalshi:KXCLAUDE-MYTH-26NOV01","venue":"Kalshi","lab":"anthropic","event_id":"KXCLAUDE-MYTH","group":"Mythos","question":"Will Anthropic release Mythos before Nov 1, 2026?","deadline_at":"2026-11-01T04:00:00+00:00","deadline_label":"Before Nov 1, 2026 (ET)","bid":null,"ask":0.02,"midpoint":null,"spread":null,"url":"https://kalshi.com/markets/kxclaude/claude-model-release/kxclaude-myth","active":true,"volume":226382.97,"volume_unit":"contracts","volume_24h":0.0,"result":null,"closed_at":null,"opened_at":"2026-04-16T02:00:00Z","rules":"If Anthropic releases A model called Mythos  before Nov 1, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.\n\nRelease must be to the public, outside of a closed beta, though limiting it to a high-cost subscription tier is acceptable.\n\n**Important information:** To satisfy the Payout Criterion, Anthropic must release to the public a model named \"Mythos.\" Both conditions must be met by the same model:\n\nName. The model must be named \"Mythos\" (e.g., \"Claude Mythos 5\"). A model that Anthropic describes as \"Mythos-class\" or as belonging to the Mythos tier, but that carries a different name (e.g., \"Claude Fable 5\"), does not satisfy the Payout Criterion, even if Anthropic states it is the same underlying model with modified safety features.\n\nPublic release. A release restricted to a closed beta or to a limited set of approved or trusted organizations does not constitute a release to the public. A release available to the general public, including a release limited to a paid subscription tier, does constitute a release to the public.\n\nAccordingly, Anthropic's June 9, 2026 announcement does not satisfy the Payout Criterion: Claude Fable 5 was released to the public but is not named Mythos, and Claude Mythos 5 is currently restricted to a limited set of approved organizations. The market will remain open. If a model named \"Mythos\" becomes available to the public before the relevant date, the Contract will resolve in accordance with its terms.\n","rules_hash":"c32ab4ee2fdc648c7a8c3b82a1a6de55ac5a11f3ae7e09a8401757cb9c968b48","observed_at":"2026-10-25T17:45:14.465396+00:00"},{"id":"kalshi:KXCLAUDE-MYTH-26DEC01","venue":"Kalshi","lab":"anthropic","event_id":"KXCLAUDE-MYTH","group":"Mythos","question":"Will Anthropic release Mythos before Dec 1, 2026?","deadline_at":"2026-12-01T05:00:00+00:00","deadline_label":"Before Dec 1, 2026 (ET)","bid":0.03,"ask":0.07,"midpoint":0.05,"spread":0.04,"url":"https://kalshi.com/markets/kxclaude/claude-model-release/kxclaude-myth","active":true,"volume":211048.47,"volume_unit":"contracts","volume_24h":373.03,"result":null,"closed_at":null,"opened_at":"2026-04-16T02:00:00Z","rules":"If Anthropic releases A model called Mythos  before Dec 1, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.\n\nRelease must be to the public, outside of a closed beta, though limiting it to a high-cost subscription tier is acceptable.\n\n**Important information:** To satisfy the Payout Criterion, Anthropic must release to the public a model named \"Mythos.\" Both conditions must be met by the same model:\n\nName. The model must be named \"Mythos\" (e.g., \"Claude Mythos 5\"). A model that Anthropic describes as \"Mythos-class\" or as belonging to the Mythos tier, but that carries a different name (e.g., \"Claude Fable 5\"), does not satisfy the Payout Criterion, even if Anthropic states it is the same underlying model with modified safety features.\n\nPublic release. A release restricted to a closed beta or to a limited set of approved or trusted organizations does not constitute a release to the public. A release available to the general public, including a release limited to a paid subscription tier, does constitute a release to the public.\n\nAccordingly, Anthropic's June 9, 2026 announcement does not satisfy the Payout Criterion: Claude Fable 5 was released to the public but is not named Mythos, and Claude Mythos 5 is currently restricted to a limited set of approved organizations. The market will remain open. If a model named \"Mythos\" becomes available to the public before the relevant date, the Contract will resolve in accordance with its terms.\n","rules_hash":"a36a236900b235c61d29505120e2b78a2059a1f5e3bbfc4f5935bb408410561a","observed_at":"2026-10-25T17:45:14.465450+00:00"},{"id":"kalshi:KXGEMINI-NEXTPRO-26NOV16","venue":"Kalshi","lab":"google","event_id":"KXGEMINI-NEXTPRO","group":"Next Gemini Pro model","question":"Will Google release next Gemini Pro model before Nov 16, 2026?","deadline_at":"2026-11-16T05:00:00+00:00","deadline_label":"Before Nov 16, 2026 (ET)","bid":0.06,"ask":0.07,"midpoint":0.065,"spread":0.01,"url":"https://kalshi.com/markets/kxgemini/gemini-release-date/kxgemini-nextpro","active":true,"volume":9041.07,"volume_unit":"contracts","volume_24h":2.42,"result":null,"closed_at":null,"opened_at":"2026-08-24T21:15:28Z","rules":"If Google releases next Gemini Pro model before Nov 16, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.\n\nRelease must be to the public, outside of a closed beta, though limiting it to a high-cost subscription tier is acceptable.","rules_hash":"4be756be68902c015927d75b894e758ff6ce10561401f292ccdf26191985d8ed","observed_at":"2026-10-25T17:45:14.867255+00:00"},{"id":"kalshi:KXGEMINI-NEXTPRO-26NOV01","venue":"Kalshi","lab":"google","event_id":"KXGEMINI-NEXTPRO","group":"Next Gemini Pro model","question":"Will Google release next Gemini Pro model before Nov 1, 2026?","deadline_at":"2026-11-01T04:00:00+00:00","deadline_label":"Before Nov 1, 2026 (ET)","bid":0.02,"ask":0.03,"midpoint":0.025,"spread":0.01,"url":"https://kalshi.com/markets/kxgemini/gemini-release-date/kxgemini-nextpro","active":true,"volume":35310.23,"volume_unit":"contracts","volume_24h":92.2,"result":null,"closed_at":null,"opened_at":"2026-08-24T21:15:28Z","rules":"If Google releases next Gemini Pro model before Nov 1, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.\n\nRelease must be to the public, outside of a closed beta, though limiting it to a high-cost subscription tier is acceptable.","rules_hash":"0a98332f392e85f10dc3edd3055b4328e5139ca996f53d251f86cf4061494d24","observed_at":"2026-10-25T17:45:14.867355+00:00"},{"id":"kalshi:KXGEMINI-NEXTPRO-26DEC01","venue":"Kalshi","lab":"google","event_id":"KXGEMINI-NEXTPRO","group":"Next Gemini Pro model","question":"Will Google release next Gemini Pro model before Dec 1, 2026?","deadline_at":"2026-12-01T05:00:00+00:00","deadline_label":"Before Dec 1, 2026 (ET)","bid":0.06,"ask":0.08,"midpoint":0.07,"spread":0.02,"url":"https://kalshi.com/markets/kxgemini/gemini-release-date/kxgemini-nextpro","active":true,"volume":18551.02,"volume_unit":"contracts","volume_24h":1.25,"result":null,"closed_at":null,"opened_at":"2026-08-24T21:15:28Z","rules":"If Google releases next Gemini Pro model before Dec 1, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.\n\nRelease must be to the public, outside of a closed beta, though limiting it to a high-cost subscription tier is acceptable.","rules_hash":"478f640c90a46b79735f76dcdd5cc7926d976a76ec3dca2b1be159e639ba23f8","observed_at":"2026-10-25T17:45:14.867417+00:00"},{"id":"kalshi:KXGROK-GROK5-26DEC01","venue":"Kalshi","lab":"xai","event_id":"KXGROK-GROK5","group":"Grok 5","question":"Will xAI release Grok 5 before Dec 1, 2026?","deadline_at":"2026-12-01T05:00:00+00:00","deadline_label":"Before Dec 1, 2026 (ET)","bid":0.09,"ask":0.14,"midpoint":0.115,"spread":0.05,"url":"https://kalshi.com/markets/kxgrok/grok/kxgrok-grok5","active":true,"volume":1176.57,"volume_unit":"contracts","volume_24h":0.0,"result":null,"closed_at":null,"opened_at":"2026-09-21T23:00:00Z","rules":"If xAI releases Grok 5 before Dec 1, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.\n\nRelease must be to the public, outside of a closed beta, though limiting it to a high-cost subscription tier is acceptable.","rules_hash":"cdb118ab361e064ca4f3f6880c6009901ddbfec44cc777b64df38e4049dcd332","observed_at":"2026-10-25T17:45:15.313345+00:00"},{"id":"kalshi:KXGROK-GROK5-26NOV01","venue":"Kalshi","lab":"xai","event_id":"KXGROK-GROK5","group":"Grok 5","question":"Will xAI release Grok 5 before Nov 1, 2026?","deadline_at":"2026-11-01T04:00:00+00:00","deadline_label":"Before Nov 1, 2026 (ET)","bid":null,"ask":0.05,"midpoint":null,"spread":null,"url":"https://kalshi.com/markets/kxgrok/grok/kxgrok-grok5","active":true,"volume":297.22,"volume_unit":"contracts","volume_24h":0.0,"result":null,"closed_at":null,"opened_at":"2026-09-21T23:00:00Z","rules":"If xAI releases Grok 5 before Nov 1, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.\n\nRelease must be to the public, outside of a closed beta, though limiting it to a high-cost subscription tier is acceptable.","rules_hash":"fd452b2dde90ed16e6a060301b79d82cd8f1fdb9a752aa26f1a658ee39e2f77c","observed_at":"2026-10-25T17:45:15.313500+00:00"},{"id":"kalshi:KXGROK-GROK5-27JAN01","venue":"Kalshi","lab":"xai","event_id":"KXGROK-GROK5","group":"Grok 5","question":"Will xAI release Grok 5 before Jan 1, 2027?","deadline_at":"2027-01-01T05:00:00+00:00","deadline_label":"Before Jan 1, 2027 (ET)","bid":0.34,"ask":0.41,"midpoint":0.375,"spread":0.07,"url":"https://kalshi.com/markets/kxgrok/grok/kxgrok-grok5","active":true,"volume":17947.57,"volume_unit":"contracts","volume_24h":49.0,"result":null,"closed_at":null,"opened_at":"2026-01-01T15:00:00Z","rules":"If xAI releases Grok 5 before Jan 1, 2027, then the market resolves to Yes.\n\nRelease must be to the public, outside of a closed beta, though limiting it to a high-cost subscription tier is acceptable.","rules_hash":"1979aaee8fe5e9d5f3695dbd235d0dc864c7dbff2231cc4f3d78270875b6d047","observed_at":"2026-10-25T17:45:15.448057+00:00"},{"id":"kalshi:KXLLAMA5-27","venue":"Kalshi","lab":"meta","event_id":"KXLLAMA5-27","group":"Llama 5 or greater","question":"Will Meta release A model called Llama 5 or greater before Jan 2027?","deadline_at":"2027-01-01T05:00:00+00:00","deadline_label":"Before Jan 1, 2027 (ET)","bid":null,"ask":0.02,"midpoint":null,"spread":null,"url":"https://kalshi.com/markets/kxllama5/llama5/kxllama5-27","active":true,"volume":87315.24,"volume_unit":"contracts","volume_24h":0.0,"result":null,"closed_at":null,"opened_at":"2026-01-03T15:00:00Z","rules":"If Meta releases Llama 5 before Jan 1, 2027, then the market resolves to Yes.\n\nRelease must be to the public, outside of a closed beta, though limiting it to a high-cost subscription tier is acceptable.","rules_hash":"969cb72bb16796dd7f1fe2a85b99094a7d1dcff5043100e50b7821ed03649d97","observed_at":"2026-10-25T17:45:15.648611+00:00"}],"projections":[{"id":"openai:next openai gpt terra 5.7+","lab":"openai","name":"Next OpenAI GPT Terra (5.7+)","estimate":{"date":"2026-11-04","bound":"around"},"window":{"start":{"date":"2026-10-26","bound":"by"},"end":{"date":"2026-11-30","bound":"after"},"mass":0.8},"timing":"dated","horizon":{"date":"2026-11-30","probability":0.8505},"markets":7,"unpriced_markets":0,"venues":["Polymarket"],"observed_at":"2026-10-25T17:45:13.498152+00:00","stale":false,"scope_note":null,"points":[{"date":"2026-10-26","probability":0.09,"low":0.08,"high":0.1},{"date":"2026-10-27","probability":0.18,"low":0.141,"high":0.219},{"date":"2026-10-28","probability":0.22,"low":0.2,"high":0.24},{"date":"2026-10-29","probability":0.385,"low":0.36,"high":0.41},{"date":"2026-10-30","probability":0.445,"low":0.43,"high":0.46},{"date":"2026-10-31","probability":0.45,"low":0.44,"high":0.46},{"date":"2026-11-30","probability":0.8505,"low":0.833,"high":0.868}],"market_ids":["polymarket:6044488","polymarket:6044489","polymarket:6044490","polymarket:6044491","polymarket:6044487","polymarket:3592098","polymarket:3668605"]},{"id":"anthropic:next fable model 5.2+","lab":"anthropic","name":"Next Fable Model (5.2+)","estimate":{"date":"2026-11-19","bound":"around"},"window":{"start":{"date":"2026-10-27","bound":"around"},"end":{"date":"2026-12-29","bound":"around"},"mass":0.8},"timing":"dated","horizon":{"date":"2026-12-31","probability":0.934},"markets":7,"unpriced_markets":0,"venues":["Polymarket"],"observed_at":"2026-10-25T17:45:13.498152+00:00","stale":false,"scope_note":null,"points":[{"date":"2026-10-26","probability":0.0305,"low":0.028,"high":0.033},{"date":"2026-10-27","probability":0.2,"low":0.19,"high":0.21},{"date":"2026-10-28","probability":0.235,"low":0.22,"high":0.25},{"date":"2026-10-29","probability":0.275,"low":0.26,"high":0.29},{"date":"2026-10-30","probability":0.3,"low":0.29,"high":0.31},{"date":"2026-10-31","probability":0.315,"low":0.307,"high":0.323},{"date":"2026-12-31","probability":0.934,"low":0.923,"high":0.945}],"market_ids":["polymarket:5998475","polymarket:5998474","polymarket:5998477","polymarket:5998478","polymarket:5998476","polymarket:4178411","polymarket:4178412"]},{"id":"xai:next grok model 4.8+","lab":"xai","name":"Next Grok Model (4.8+)","estimate":{"date":"2026-11-20","bound":"around"},"window":{"start":{"date":"2026-11-02","bound":"around"},"end":{"date":"2026-11-30","bound":"after"},"mass":0.8},"timing":"dated","horizon":{"date":"2026-11-30","probability":0.75},"markets":2,"unpriced_markets":0,"venues":["Polymarket"],"observed_at":"2026-10-25T17:45:13.498152+00:00","stale":false,"scope_note":null,"points":[{"date":"2026-10-31","probability":0.0445,"low":0.032,"high":0.057},{"date":"2026-11-30","probability":0.75,"low":0.64,"high":0.86}],"market_ids":["polymarket:4840147","polymarket:4840148"]},{"id":"google:next gemini flash model 3.9+","lab":"google","name":"Next Gemini Flash Model 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